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The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries : Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys (English)

The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has sharply reduced mobility and economic activity, disrupting the lives of people around the globe. This paper presents estimates on the early impact of the crisis on labor markets in 39 countries based on high-frequency phone survey data collected between April and July 2020. Workers in these countries experienced severe labor market disruptions following the COVID-19 outbreak. Based on simple averages across countries, 34 percent of the respondents reported stopping work, 20 percent of wage workers reported lack of payment for work performed, 9 percent reported job changes due to the pandemic, and 62 percent reported income loss in their household. Stopping work was more prevalent in the industrial and service sectors than in agriculture. Measures of work stoppage and income loss in the high-frequency phone survey are generally consistent with gross domestic product growth projections in Latin America and the Caribbean but not in Sub-Saharan Africa. This suggests that the survey data contribute new and important information on economic impacts in low-income countries.

Details

  • Author

    Khamis,Melanie, Prinz,Daniel, Newhouse,David Locke, Palacios-Lopez,Amparo, Pape,Utz Johann, Weber,Michael

  • Document Date

    2021/01/15

  • Document Type

    Policy Research Working Paper

  • Report Number

    WPS9510

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    World,

  • Region

    The World Region,

  • Disclosure Date

    2021/01/15

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries : Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys

  • Keywords

    labor market impact; Poverty and Equity; small and medium enterprise; Democratic Republic of Congo; labor market outcome; payment for work; labor force survey; survey data; labor market changes; country income group; deaths per million; loss of work; change in employment; social security system; public assistance program; formal labor market; years of schooling; measure of use; working age population; informal sector worker; labor market development; labor market institution; labor market policy; demand for labor; labor market indicator; source of income; demand for service; per capita income; number of workers; impacts on employment; private sector transactions; Access to Electricity; labor market participation; shortness of breath; labor supply elasticity; labor market activity; labor market situation; informal labor market; source income; more developed countries; payment of wage; role of development; quality of data; income loss; wage income; macroeconomic projection; household head; simple average; weighting method; household weight; robustness check; farm income; household income; high share; income change; household survey; wage worker; labor demand; Learning and Innovation Credit; individual level; sampling frame; employment estimates; social distance; positive correlation; Employment Change; government response; Coping Mechanisms; family farming; weighting procedure; individual weight; social assistance; labor income; new information; employment data; high frequency; school closure; selection bias; low-wage worker; formal economy; random digit; reduced work; human capital; unemployment insurance; global assessment; aggregate consumption; survey sampling; economic statistic; recent work; income source; wage employment; government support; search engine; social media; government administrative; risk account; retail trade; government restriction; Infectious Disease; industrial production; respiratory failure; future earnings; supply side; sore throat; urban worker; physical infrastructure; macroeconomic model; poverty estimate; administrative datum; sampling design; Data Production; employment trend; behavioral change; labor statistic; survey respondent; in poverty; Regional Studies; debt relief; mitigation measure; income support; demand reduction; economic crisis; individual characteristic; internal consistency; workers experience; positive relationship; information content; demographic characteristic; Research Support; income category; household level; cross-country comparison; new job; job changing; real time; agricultural worker; Job Vacancies; constant price; pandemic start; aggregate indicator; production process; employment statistic; survey sample; external source; downward adjustment; base year; Macroeconomic Growth; employment loss; time horizon; household welfare; employment outcome; income components; short-term employment; employment projection; Poverty Measurement; census data; development cooperation; supply response; development policy; young adult; economics literature; open access; joint product; south sudan; sampling strategy; household interview; household sample; mobile network; job loss; agriculture sector; several countries; subsequent years; negative relationship; weighting system; negative correlation; percent change; Informal Economy; potential implication; probit regression; education indicator; household impact

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Citation

Khamis,Melanie Prinz,Daniel Newhouse,David Locke Palacios-Lopez,Amparo Pape,Utz Johann Weber,Michael

The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries : Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 9510,COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/526231610724036866/The-Early-Labor-Market-Impacts-of-COVID-19-in-Developing-Countries-Evidence-from-High-Frequency-Phone-Surveys