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Uganda Economic Update 16th Edition : Investing in Uganda’s Youth (English)

Uganda’s real GDP grew at 2.9 percent in FY20, less than half the 6.8 percent recorded in FY19, due to the effects of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis, and is expected to grow at a similar level in FY21, but downside risks are high. Economic activity stalled during the latter part of the fiscal year due to a domestic lockdown that lasted over four months, border closures for everything but essential cargo, and the spillover effects of disruption in global demand and global supply chains due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This resulted in a sharp contraction in public investment and deceleration in private consumption, which hit the industrial and service sectors hard, particularly the informal service sector. On a calendar year basis, real GDP growth is expected to contract by up to 1 percent in 2020, compared to 7.5 percent growth in 2019, and, as a result, real per capita GDP growth is expected to contract by about 4.5 percent. Even if GDP growth rebounds strongly by 2022, the level of per capita GDP is likely to remain well below its pre-COVID trajectory. As a result of these impacts, the COVID-19 crisis is threatening to reverse some of the gains made on structural transformation and the declining poverty trend of the past decade. This transformation was characterized by a reduction in the workforce employed in on-farm agriculture and a take-off in industrial production, largely in agro-processing. However, following the COVID shock, there have already been widespread firm closures, permanent layoffs in industry and services, a rapid slowdown of activity particularly in the urban informal sector, and a movement of labor back to farming. At the same time, household incomes have fallen, which is concerning given the high levels of vulnerability to poverty, limited social safety nets, and impacts this might have on human capital development and Uganda’s capacity to benefit from its demographic transition.


  • Author

    Walker,Richard Ancrum, Stucka,Tihomir, Sebudde,Rachel K., Atamanov,Aziz, Myers,Cara Ann

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    Working Paper

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  • Region

    Middle East and North Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa,

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  • Doc Name

    Uganda Economic Update 16th Edition : Investing in Uganda’s Youth

  • Keywords

    human capital; real gdp; health promotion and disease prevention; energy-related investment; Demographic Transition; severe acute respiratory syndrome; number of new cases; Below the Poverty Line; Global Manufacturing & Services; foreign exchange market intervention; sustainable development goals; efficiency in resource allocation; access to safe water; small and medium enterprise; Maternal and Child Mortality; household income; human capital development; general government expenditure; current account deficit; direct income support; Health Service; fiscal deficit; vulnerability to poverty; debt sustainability analysis; urban informal sector; information and communication; Health Service Delivery; social protection program; years of schooling; global supply chain; per capita term; Social Safety Nets; education and health; working age population; commodity price; global economy; financial market; output per worker; food price forecast; construction of building; Construction Building; government bond yield; number of visitors; Foreign Exchange Reserve; regional trading partners; movement of labor; population growth rate; fixed capital formation; minister of finance; trade and investment; loss of employment; value added tax; change in consumption; global value chain; raising tax revenue; global economic prospect; production due; investments in infrastructure; reproductive health service; gross enrollment rate; commodity price volatility; maintenance and repair; economies of scale; use of resources; lower secondary education; quality of teaching; total public expenditure; improving teacher quality; fiscal stimulus package; total debt service; crude oil price; risk of debt; barrels per day; fall in demand; lower oil price; health sector spending; social assistance measures; agricultural commodity price; demand for oil; high-yield corporate bond; share of children; emerging market bond; global financial crisis; suspension of payment; cost of capital; Human Immunodeficiency Virus; loss of income; vulnerable rural household; structure of employment; food security crisis; trust bank; national poverty line; financial sector risk; retail trade sector; reduction in poverty; domestic demand; farm family; private consumption; construction sector; agriculture sector; fiscal space; export orders; government borrowing; development path; Population Projection; Basic Education; fiscal implication; oil sector; healthcare resources; mitigation measure; fiscal vulnerability; global growth; fiscal effort; economic recovery; rural area; average price; economic sector; high share; international tourism; productive potential; health budget; preferential treatment; public education; income source; essential services; income loss; cash crop; job loss; demographic pressure; secondary level; Food Services; container shipping; private investment; global demand; border closure; calendar year; other sectors; global integration; global commodity; agricultural product; credit institution; trade restriction; intermediate input; low-income household; borrowing cost; household borrowing; international spillover; commodity market; advanced economy; Public-Private Partnership; baseline scenario; global poverty; commercial bank; expanding population; sustainable system; science study; test score; government investment; public funding; Donor Contribution; national policy; fiscal burden; base budget; international norm; national budget; Public Spending; child malnutrition; sector fund; Online Learning; pupil funding; farming household; enhancing access; empowering women; educating girl; fiscal cost; health gain; financial saving; prevention measures; disease burden; business process; Efficiency Enhancing; agricultural produce; recent studies; corrective measure; health facility; strategic purchasing; program objectives; smallholder farmer; cross-border trade; adjustment factor; food demand; foreign financing; transport equipment; rural livelihood; lost jobs



Official version of document (may contain signatures, etc)


Walker,Richard Ancrum Stucka,Tihomir Sebudde,Rachel K. Atamanov,Aziz Myers,Cara Ann

Uganda Economic Update 16th Edition : Investing in Uganda’s Youth (English). Uganda Economic Update,no. 16 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group