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Tuberculosis in Indonesia : Epidemic Projections and Opportunities to Accelerate Control : Findings from an Optima TB Analysis (English)

This Optima TB modeling analysis was conducted to project the trajectory of the future epidemic and to estimate how existing and additional resources might be optimally allocated to maximize the impact of the national TB response. Results show that TB incidence will remain relatively stagnant under status quo spending and that there is limited scope for improving allocative efficiency. Under status quo spending conditions, by 2035, the number of new TB infections would decrease by 6 percent (780,000 new TB infections), the number of TB-related deaths by 16 percent (110,000 TB-related deaths), and the number of prevalent TB cases by 22 percent (1,470,000 prevalent TB cases) relative to 2016. Optimizing the allocation of current spending would add modest gains – a less than 2 percent decrease in the number of new TB cases, TB-related deaths, and prevalent TB cases compared to status quo. This implies that the current resources are already allocated efficiently. As active case-finding has been limited to date, the data on yield for different modalities of active case-finding has also been limited. Piloting case-finding programs among additional high-risk populations including those with comorbidities beyond HIV and those in higher-risk settings (for example, boarding schools, urban poor) should be explored because they may have higher yields compared with testing in the general population and could potentially be expanded.

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Citation

Harimurti,Pandu Pradhan,Elina Cheikh,Nejma Hafez,Reem Fraser-Hurt,Nicole Farid,Muhammad Noor Setiawan,Ery Riono,Pandu

Tuberculosis in Indonesia : Epidemic Projections and Opportunities to Accelerate Control : Findings from an Optima TB Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/585221601454010320/Findings-from-an-Optima-TB-Analysis