Skip to Main Navigation

Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English)

Niger’s risk of external and overall public debt distress has increased but the risk rating remains moderate. The response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic required higher borrowing, but, more importantly, the shock entailed a sharp fall in exports, together with Nigeria’s decision to close its border to trade. Two debt indicators now breach their thresholds in the baseline, the present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt relative to exports and the PPG debt service-to-exports ratio, for two years, in 2020- 2021, and one year, in 2021, respectively, until the onset of crude oil exports during 2022 via a new pipeline. But the impending sharp upward revision of gold exports provides grounds not to change Niger’s debt distress rating at this point. While not yet finalized and integrated into the macroeconomic framework, customs data and independent information on the surge of artisanal gold production suggest a revision on a scale that would leave only one minor threshold breach. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) is otherwise predicated on the government implementing its reform program and the timetable for the start of oil exports holding. Identified weaknesses call for further strengthening debt management, reducing fiscal risks from SOEs and public-private partnerships (PPPs), prioritizing concessional borrowing, and strengthening private-sector development to support economic diversification.

Details

  • Document Date

    2020/10/01

  • Document Type

    Board Report

  • Report Number

    154944

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    World,

  • Region

    The World Region,

  • Disclosure Date

    2020/12/08

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

  • Keywords

    public debt; debt service; debt-creating flow; domestic debt; Public and Publicly Guaranteed; commodity price shock; nominal interest rate; real exchange rate depreciation; efficiency of public spending; external public debt; current account deficit; public sector debt; private external debt; real interest rate; total public debt; debt sustainability analysis; social security fund; export of goods; extra budgetary fund; exchange rate change; real gdp; export ratio; grace period; stock of debt; total external debt; external debt indicator; crude oil export; primary fiscal deficit; domestic revenue mobilization; primary deficit; fiscal consolidation; baseline scenario; contingent liabilities; contingent liability; fiscal adjustment; debt relief; external borrowing; domestic financing; customs datum; debt dynamic; private sector debt; Effective interest rate; domestic banking sector; exchange rate peg; public sector borrowing; public debt sustainability; external debt service; adverse commodity price; composition of debt; average interest rate; change in arrears; external financial assistance; domestic debt rose; total debt stock; macroeconomic and fiscal; high oil revenue; risk of debt; debt sustainability framework; real growth rate; social development agenda; social development plan; private investment rate; external debt sustainability; reducing fiscal risks; oil export pipeline; local private sector; dollar term; macroeconomic framework; Learning and Innovation Credit; private debt; donor support; foreign debt; financing need; concessional loan; projection period; domestic borrowing; macroeconomic forecast; debt indicators; economic diversification; macroeconomic assumption; budgetary financing; recent years; unexpected changes; valuation adjustments; high ratio; commodity export; composite indicator; debt external; external financing; fiscal multiplier; sustainability indicator; primary balance; artisanal gold; Export Diversification; guaranteed debt; export shock; short-term debt; alternative scenarios; regional market

Downloads

COMPLETE REPORT

Official version of document (may contain signatures, etc)

  • Official PDF
  • TXT*
  • Total Downloads** :
  • Download Stats
  • *The text version is uncorrected OCR text and is included solely to benefit users with slow connectivity.

Citation

Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/595901607656641870/Niger-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis