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Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English)

Niger’s risk of external and overall public debt distress has increased but the risk rating remains moderate. The response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic required higher borrowing, but, more importantly, the shock entailed a sharp fall in exports, together with Nigeria’s decision to close its border to trade. Two debt indicators now breach their thresholds in the baseline, the present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt relative to exports and the PPG debt service-to-exports ratio, for two years, in 2020- 2021, and one year, in 2021, respectively, until the onset of crude oil exports during 2022 via a new pipeline. But the impending sharp upward revision of gold exports provides grounds not to change Niger’s debt distress rating at this point. While not yet finalized and integrated into the macroeconomic framework, customs data and independent information on the surge of artisanal gold production suggest a revision on a scale that would leave only one minor threshold breach. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) is otherwise predicated on the government implementing its reform program and the timetable for the start of oil exports holding. Identified weaknesses call for further strengthening debt management, reducing fiscal risks from SOEs and public-private partnerships (PPPs), prioritizing concessional borrowing, and strengthening private-sector development to support economic diversification.


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    Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

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Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.