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The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 : Western Balkans Outlook (English)

The Western Balkans region is projected to enter a recession in 2020 whose magnitude vitally depends on the duration of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak in Europe. In the baseline scenario, the recession would be considerable, with growth in the region contracting by about 3 percent but with substantial differences by country based on economic structure and pre-crisis vulnerabilities. Assuming the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak is largely contained by mid-2020— allowing economic activity to resume as measures to contain the virus are lifted and financial market and supply-chain disruptions ease—real GDP growth for the year would fall by 3.1 percent. Because their economic structure depends on service exports, Montenegro, Albania, and Kosovo would be hit hard, with a drop of over 8 percentage points (pp) from preCOVID-19 2020 projections. Their economies are projected to contract by about 5 percent. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Serbia, and North Macedonia are expected to experience only slightly less acute recessions, by 3.2, 2.5, and 1.4 percent compared to the pre-COVID-19 projection.

Details

  • Author

    Kikoni,Edith, Schiffbauer,Marc Tobias

  • Document Date

    2020/04/29

  • Document Type

    Report

  • Report Number

    148085

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2020/04/29

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 : Western Balkans Outlook

  • Keywords

    mitigation measure; social assistance; global financial crisis; export-oriented industry; local self-governance; small and medium size enterprise; minimum wage; loan repayment; tourism; real gdp; fiscal space; state of emergency; foreign direct investment; social distance; Wage Subsidies; wage subsidy; abolition of fee; exemption of tax; credit guarantee scheme; direct financial support; social assistance program; global equity market; housing interest rate; debt-service; local labor market; demand for good; zero interest rate; domestic stock market; global value chain; executive development; payment of pension; debt service costs; exchange rate development; international tourist arrivals; Rural Travel and Transport; drop in remittance; information and communication; source income; source of income; total external debt; Social Safety Nets; electronic payment system; current account deficit; public debt limit; Rule of Law; global supply chain; impact of intervention; billion people; foreign exchange swap; payment of dividend; financial sector stability; tourism receipts; consumption; portfolio flow; productivity growth; downside scenario; electricity subsidies; economic crisis; budget support; financial market; external account; migrant worker; confirmed case; baseline scenario; trade measure; capital outflow; external imbalance; Real estate; disposable income; legal entities; credit line; legal entity; budget increase; capital flow; policy term; economic stabilization; Economic Stimulus; contingent liability; financial linkages; lump-sum tax; contingent liabilities; global financing; economic recovery; severe erosion; nonperforming loan; capital spending; medical equipment; government decision; response measure; volatility index; profit tax; tax deferral; international finance; stabilization fund; credit funds; consensus forecast; compensation fund; guarantee fund; installment payment; transport restriction; short-term crisis; employment rate; transport service; retail employment; informal firms; skill mismatch; Public Services; export restrictions; tax return; subsidized credit; human capital; loan payment; short-term measures; external shock; eligibility criterion; food product; formal declaration; average earning; personal consumption; solvency constraint; job loss; money transfer; labor income; banking sector; lending rate; small payment; aggregate demand; capital-intensive sector; social measures; budgetary support; external financing; regulatory penalties; economic shock; productive capacity; designing policy; rent payment; household consumption; summer season; Cash Transfer; other sectors; liquidity constraint; temporary suspension; Health Workers; export growth; agriculture sector; weighted average; trading partner; business person; deep integration; severe recession; vulnerable household; online service; grace period; vulnerable citizen; international tourism; tax debt; social contribution; financing constraint; real sector; firm productivity; supply disruption; building form; literary works; art exhibition; graphic designer; interior design; large enterprise; social security; cash subsidy; social isolation; loan guarantee; corporate bond; Fiscal Stimulus; foreign demand; household income; agricultural product; repo operations; medical product; price control; tax payment; supervisory board; travel restriction; high share; total employment; salary supplement; emergency situation; severance payment; pension scheme; political environment; put pressure; crisis responses; social cost; raw material; Global Services; reporting requirement; parliamentary election; political instability; global risk; inflection point; virus transmission; external demand; financial flow; earnings estimate; credit arrangement; micro entrepreneur; fiscal deficit; international investor; employment contract; Job Creation; risky investment; high financing; international reserve; public health; rural company; eligible beneficiary; financial liquidit

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Citation

Kikoni,Edith Schiffbauer,Marc Tobias

The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 : Western Balkans Outlook (English). Western Balkans Regular Economic Report,no. 17 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/606131588087679463/The-Economic-and-Social-Impact-of-COVID-19-Western-Balkans-Outlook