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Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Nigeria (English)

The World Bank’s flagship report, Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration (Rigaud et al. 2018), and the sequel (Clement et al. 2021), finds that that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility. An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region (Rigaud et al. 2021a). The recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, West Africa could see as many as 27.3 million people move because of slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge. These spatial population shifts will represent 3.48 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. Nigeria has a long history of mobility, and migration patterns have historically been dynamic. The migration towards north-central zones as well as southward toward Lagos and other coastal cities is influenced by climate change and environmental conditions as well as better economic opportunities. In recent years, severe floods have led to loss of lives, housing and infrastructure, and compelled Nigerians to move out of areas affected by the disasters.


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    Rigaud,Kanta K., Sherbinin, Alex de, Jones,Bryan R, Abu-Ata,Nathalie E., Adamo, Susana

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    Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Nigeria

  • Keywords

    Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development; international earth science information network; adverse impacts of climate change; societal adaptation to climate change; integrated coastal zone management; induced migration; impact of climate change; social and economic transformation; global average temperature increase; Population and Development; cubic meters per second; climate-related risks; greenhouse gas emission reduction; information and communication technology; sea level rise; climate impact; increase in population; greenhouse gas concentration; million people; extreme weather event; change in population; process of adjustment; movement of people; loss of life; existing legal framework; global climate model; scale of migration; crop simulation model; Internally Displaced Person; nationally determine contribution; risk and vulnerability; place of residence; loss of asset; stages of migration; flora and fauna; spatial population distribution; mean sea level; average daily temperature; probability density function; climate change risk; loss of land; difference in population; degraded lands; analysis of adaptation; across national border; early warning system; capacity for adaptation; Social Safety Nets; average sea level; private sector financing; number of males; climate change research; low poverty incidence; river basin management; conversion of forest; movement of worker; line of defense; Disaster Risk Reduction; future climate change; degree of influence; natural resource base; extreme precipitation events; land and water; water availability; climate factors; storm surge; crop production; internal migration; internal migrant; ghg emissions; water stress; coastal area



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Rigaud,Kanta K. Sherbinin, Alex de Jones,Bryan R Abu-Ata,Nathalie E. Adamo, Susana

Groundswell Africa : A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Nigeria (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.