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Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict : Evidence from the Philippines (English)

Post-election violence is a common form of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election violence is particularly intense after narrow victories by incumbents. Using a density test, the study shows that incumbents were substantially more likely to win narrow victories than their challengers, a pattern consistent with electoral...
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Crost,Benjamin; Felter,Joseph H.; Mansour,Hani; Rees,Daniel I..

Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict : Evidence from the Philippines (English). Policy Research working paper|no. WPS 9126 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/633841580304389537

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