Skip to Main Navigation

Opening-up Trajectories and Economic Recovery : Lessons after the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic (English)

This paper analyzes the reopening process of countries in Europe and Central Asia after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and provides evidence on the effects of different reopening trajectories and their timing and speed on economic recovery. The analysis indicates that countries that adopted a gradual, staged reopening experienced stronger economic recovery compared with the countries that rushed into lifting the restrictive measures before the pandemic was under control. Postponing lifting the restrictions until after the pandemic's peak was reached has a positive impact on economic activity. Governance also matters: a higher level of trust in government is associated with increased economic activity among countries that carried out a gradual reopening process. There is also suggestive evidence that providing people objective data on the progress of the pandemic may speed up the recovery process.

Details

  • Author

    Demirguc-Kunt,Asli, Lokshin,Michael M., Torre,Ivan

  • Document Date

    2020/11/24

  • Document Type

    Policy Research Working Paper

  • Report Number

    WPS9480

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2020/11/24

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Opening-up Trajectories and Economic Recovery : Lessons after the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

  • Keywords

    Life in Transition Survey; daily number of deaths; level of electricity consumption; severe acute respiratory syndrome; economic recovery; speed of recovery; country fixed effect; trust in parliament; estimation of equation; policy work; low electricity consumption; measure of use; public health response; consumption of electricity; measure of trust; stock market crash; diffusion of information; Declaration of Interests; public health official; success and failure; risk of contagion; public events; epidemiological situation; daily deaths; social distance; government institution; pharmaceutical intervention; first wave; Death rates; media coverage; peak value; average speed; wait period; high trust; negative value; negative coefficient; press coverage; recovery process; daily consumption; school closure; positive impact; restrictive measures; consumption relative; frequency distribution; weighted average; internal mobility; empirical specification; ambient temperature; media attention; pandemic start; cold temperatures; basic specification; consumption regression; coefficient estimate; econometric evidence; school operation; news events; Public Transportation; medical community; previous work; health measures; household spending; Health cost; public official; cross-country variation; demographic profile; protective behavior; significant correlation; consumption pattern; soap operas; government response; median country; graphical representation; news media; several countries; summer months; voluntary compliance; risky behavior; relative frequency; human mobility; hypothetical scenario; public debate; disaster relief; positive correlation; news cover; average share; Retail Sector; unit increase; government's commitment; estimation result; cumulative impact; Research Support; first stage; removing restriction; interaction coefficient; legal system; interaction effect; time trend; development policy; open access; country capital; individual behavior; electricity data; good compliance; infected individuals; online tool; social media; official statistic; important policy; empirical exercise; social activities; standard economic; proxy measure; national grid; effective strategy; proxy indicator; news source; marginal increase; economic recession; young child; global health; public commitment; central node; research centre; labor supply; prevention measures; production network; tourism industry; cross-country comparison; childcare services; multidimensional process; social capital; independent variable; geographical region; descriptive statistic; open policy; in institution; public perception; risk perception; individual choice; infection rate

Downloads

COMPLETE REPORT

Official version of document (may contain signatures, etc)

  • Official PDF
  • TXT*
  • Total Downloads** :
  • Download Stats
  • *The text version is uncorrected OCR text and is included solely to benefit users with slow connectivity.

Citation

Demirguc-Kunt,Asli Lokshin,Michael M. Torre,Ivan

Opening-up Trajectories and Economic Recovery : Lessons after the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 9480,COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/655041606235025254/Opening-up-Trajectories-and-Economic-Recovery-Lessons-after-the-First-Wave-of-the-COVID-19-Pandemic