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Guatemala - Current economic position and prospects (English)

Until very recently, the Guatemalan economy has been growing very slowly. Real per capita income declined from Q271 in 1957 to Q266 in 1962. The lack of dynamism in the economy was largely the result of the stagnation of export values, due to the pronounced drop in coffee prices after 1957 at a time when coffee accounted for 65-70 percent of total export earnings, and the accompanying stagnation of investment. The gradual development of new products for export was not sufficient to offset the decline in coffee earnings. Prospects for the growth of foreign exchange earnings are encouraging. Guatemala should accordingly be able to finance an adequate growth of imports of goods and services and at the same time gradually limit or reduce the present fairly large current account deficit. The very rapid growth of imports which occurred in 1963-64 after six years of declining import levels is not likely to continue at the same pace in the next few years. Ex-port earnings should grow at an average annual rate of about 6 per cent from $167 million in 1964 to about $23C million in 1970. Their composition should also improve as dependence on coffee is likely to be substantially reduced, making export earnings less vulnerable to a substantial drop in coffee prices than they were in 1957-62. However, the prospects for exports and for continued economic growth require a minimum degree of political stability. In the past fifteen years, political turbulence has at times seriously affected the pace of economic growth. The political situation is likely to be stable in the foreseeable future.


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    Pre-2003 Economic or Sector Report

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    Latin America & Caribbean,

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    Guatemala - Current economic position and prospects

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    current account deficit;balance of payment;saving and loan association;Net private capital inflows;rate of population growth;external public debt;import of goods;Foreign Exchange Reserve;rate of growth;public sector finance;errors and omission;foreign exchange position;production of staple;demand for credit;wholesale price index;consumer price index;international reserve position;short-term external borrowing;personal income tax;seasonal price fluctuations;neglect of education;net domestic borrowing;external debt service;total cash expenditures;income tax rate;paying income tax;domestic price level;private development bank;commercial bank credit;rate of change;public investment expenditure;annual debt service;external financial assistance;growth in population;fruit and vegetable;private sector activity;level of private;public investment program;primary school enrollment;primary school-age population;foreign private capital;electric power facility;direct foreign investment;management and administration;primary school classroom;finance for investment;disparity in income;export of goods;trade and services;current expenditure;coffee price;export growth;private investment;export tax;savings deposit;public saving;budgetary deficit;essential oil;foreign trade;Proposed Investment;agricultural sector;money supply;export earning;credit expansion;export earnings;foreign borrowing;industrial enterprise;merchandise export;long-term rate;fiscal situation;Property tax;foreign supplier;political stability;import duty;tax measure;supplier credit;coastal land;national account;cotton export;cotton production;private saving;sugar production;modern sector;Agriculture;consumer import;regional market;direct investment;coffee production;average price;coastal area;income growth;physical environment;equal increase;export price;capital good;political instability;educational situation;customs area;domestic product;economic expansion;consumer good;tax revenue;public policy;credit need;autonomous agency;export boom;tobacco tax;public power;reserve loss;merchandise import;program expenditure;social security;additional saving;maintenance equipment;stamp tax;cadastral survey;earmarked tax;domestic investment;mountain region;seasonal worker;consumer goods;generating capacity;building material;commercial centres;political history;drop-out rate;rural area;private bank;cultural production;private farmer;credit facilities;extension service;credit agency;small farmer;foreign bank;agricultural bank;manufacturing sector;food product;loan fund;bank channel;wheat production;natural conditions;export quota;export product;expansion plan;small holder;storage capacity;support price;glass products;staple food;official statistic;corn production;middle class;agricultural product;coffee area;budget deficit;Tax Administration;public revenue;short-term borrowing;investment level;mineral survey;large population;public finance;Population Density;market price;income payments;external assistance;private research;processed food;animal fat;synthetic fiber;livestock industry;livestock industrial;export market;total debt;natural rubber;agricultural output;substitute product;forest survey;large deposit;gross value;fiscal position;construction industry;agricultural production;fiscal practice;local investor;foreign investor;raw material;floating debt;foreign grants;mortgage bond;Fiscal policies;raise revenues;fiscal policy;excise tax;loanable fund;residential construction;budget support;radical change;construction boom;fiscal measure;tax structure;net profit;local market;



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Guatemala - Current economic position and prospects (English). Western hemisphere (South America) series ; no. WH 148 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.