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From Double Shock to Double Recovery - Implications and Options for Health Financing in The Time of COVID-19 (English)

Volume 2 updates the analyses presented in the original discussion paper, Volume 1, "From Double Shock to Double Recovery - Implications and Options for Health Financing in the Time of COVID-19," published in March 2021. The original paper used macroeconomic projections released by the International Monetary Fund in October 2020 to project the possible time path of health spending per capita in 178 countries and territories from 2020 to 2025, under different scenarios. The scenarios built on observations of how health spending had responded during and immediately after previous economic crises, while taking into account that the economic crisis provoked by COVID-19 (coronavirus) is different in its nature and scale. The most recent IMF country macroeconomic data, released in April 2021, forecast country macroeconomic performance through 2026. In comparison to earlier estimates, these projections suggest a less severe global economic downturn in 2020 and a stronger recovery in 2021. The objective of the present update is threefold. First, the paper briefly reports the IMF's revised macroeconomic projections. Second, it spells out the implications of these projections for countries' health spending. Finally, it compares different spending scenarios with estimates of countries’ incremental spending needs if they are to halt the COVID-19 pandemic and return to a path of progress toward universal health coverage (UHC).


  • Author

    Kurowski,Christoph, Evans,David B, Tandon,Ajay, Eozenou,Patrick Hoang-Vu, Schmidt,Martin, Irwin,Alec, Cain,Jewelwayne Salcedo, Pambudi,Eko Setyo, Postolovska,Iryna

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    The World Region,

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    From Double Shock to Double Recovery - Implications and Options for Health Financing in The Time of COVID-19

  • Keywords

    government spending; global sustainable development goals; maternal and child health services; global health; government expenditure per capita; demand for health services; Public Financial Management; development assistance for health; share of tax revenue; reduction in government spending; source of health funding; multilateral debt relief initiative; quality of health services; heavily indebted poor country; conditional cash transfer program; country income group; government revenue; per capita health; essential health services; social health insurance; global financial crisis; health system performance; general government expenditure; primary health care; external financing; per capita term; foreign direct investment; million people; asian financial crisis; global economic growth; health financing policies; health finance; government health; access to care; global economic crisis; vaccine production capacity; local economic activity; release of fund; direct foreign investment; human capital development; fast economic growth; Internally Displaced Person; minister of finance; balance of investment; community health services; economic growth forecast; private sector creditor; low growth rate; finance and debt; Gender-Based Violence; loss of life; share of resource; amount of fund; prices of import; risk of default; billion people; general tax revenues; financing for health; domestic resource mobilization; availability of technology; cost of care; price of tobacco; ministries of health; health of people; capacity of household; world war ii; local public health; source of financing; government health expenditure; implications for health; impact on health; health policy makers; form of tax; economic shock; fiscal space; public debt; Learning and Innovation Credit; policy option; government funding; vulnerable population; extreme poverty; financial protection; health payments; economic recovery; health outcome; global poverty; social distance; health systems; commodity price; budget allocation; previous crisis; primary source; fiscal adjustment; debt crisis; upward pressure; mixed financing; external funding; pandemic preparedness; regression results; pocket spending; budget resource; global economy; income elasticity; service coverage; fixed effect; income decline; low-income household; formal employment; income category; learning network; population health; Capital Investments; enhanced surveillance; acute malnutrition; relief effort; inclusive growth; Public Services; high share; recipient countries; resource flow; financial resource; income inequality; safe water; grant funding; public resource; disproportionate impact; mental stress; unwanted pregnancy; average share; food price; economic hardship; noncommercial purposes; health facility; subsidiary right; financing need; death toll; better-off household; monetary policy; government security; health shock; medical goods; political acceptability; budget flexibility; Fuel Subsidies; supplementary budget; government budget; tax financing; regressive subsidy; automatic stabilizer; reserve requirement; contribution rate; secondary market; excise tax; target health; tax measure; contribution system; emergency financing; lower rate; positive growth; latest forecast; debt service; subsequent years; Donor Commitment; performance issues; partner country; dollar term; public source; budget deficit; base budget; Performance Budgeting; impact analysis; Fiscal policies; fiscal policy; external grant; tax policy; regulatory effort; preventive service; budget transfer; funding source; health gain; outbreak control; emergency measure; tax funding; pandemic response; payment method; emergency procurement; emergency response; project impact; critical care; economic recession; social affairs; vulnerable group; health coverage; National Treasury; strategic investment; income redistribution; income loss; occupied territories; trend growth; crisis recovery; equity issue; partner institution



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Kurowski,Christoph Evans,David B Tandon,Ajay Eozenou,Patrick Hoang-Vu Schmidt,Martin Irwin,Alec Cain,Jewelwayne Salcedo Pambudi,Eko Setyo Postolovska,Iryna

From Double Shock to Double Recovery - Implications and Options for Health Financing in The Time of COVID-19 (English). Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.