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Enhancing regional power trade in Central Asia (English)

In response to a request from Central Asian (CA) countries at the CAREC Energy Sector Coordination Committee meeting, held in March 2015 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, the World Bank commissioned a study to estimate unrealized benefits from regional power trade for the four Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan during the period from 2010 – 2014. The study was implemented by AF Mercados from October 2015 through June 2016. This report reviews the key findings of the AF Mercados Report, with further details to be found in the Report itself. The analysis was focused on power trade benefits aggregated at the regional level, as well as country-specific benefits. Three cases were considered, namely (i) benefits including fuel savings only at historic energy prices, (ii) benefits including both fuel savings and economic value of avoiding unserved energy at historic fuel prices, and (iii) benefits including fuel savings and the economic value of avoiding unserved energy with fuel costs estimated to be at “market” energy prices. The findings of the report, show that the benefits for the region could have amounted to nearly USD1.5 billion if only fuel savings were taken into account. Should economic value of avoiding unserved power demand be added to benefits, the benefits would have reached almost USD5.2 billion for historic energy prices and about USD6.4 billion for market energy prices. It’s worth noting that each country could also have benefited in any of the cases, except for Kyrgyzstan for the case of including fuel savings only. Furthermore, if the countries operated together, they could also save over USD 80 million annually, or USD 400 million during the period from 2010 -2014, by sharing the regional hydro resources to provide operating reserves, instead of purchasing reserves at current market prices from outside sources.

Details

  • Author

    Myroshnychenko,Yuriy, Owen,Kirby

  • Document Date

    2016/07/01

  • Document Type

    Working Paper

  • Report Number

    ACS21198

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Central Asia,

  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2017/02/08

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Enhancing regional power trade in Central Asia

  • Keywords

    fuel price;Energy;power flow;marginal cost of production;Technical Assistance Trust Fund;cross border flow;fuel saving;hydro resources;transmission capacity;cross-border electricity trade;cost of import;regional power trade;primarily due;level of consumption;level of fuel;benefits of trade;co2 emission;large hydroelectric station;high voltage network;reduction in production;loss of value;energy and water;lack of water;reduction in emission;cost of provision;natural resource endowment;energy power demand;energy sector data;energy price;thermal generation;base case;power exchange;cross-border trade;incremental benefits;hydro generation;incremental cost;consumption level;historic value;fuel type;transmission loss;fuel cost;power system;aggregate benefit;market price;total consumption;sensitivity analysis;regional benefits;regional resources;reserve capacity;variable cost;transmission constraint;study period;load growth;energy loss;generation level;regional market;power station;system operation;energy supplier;aggregate demand;water resource;burning gas;Intra-regional Trade;trade electricity;coal generation;domestic demand;increased trade;Hydro Power;hydro production;subsidiary right;generation decrease;import price;cost decrease;standard economic;aggregate net;emergency operation;hydro generator;market rate;energy need;technological change;coordinate system;transmission capability;consumer demand;grid code;regional control;spot market;bilateral contract;simplified trade;energy producer;bilateral transaction;pricing rules;future demand;sound energy;total co2;analytical tool;hydro energy;positive value;energy resource;aggregate analysis;energy situation;simulation model;hydro system;regional transmission;input data;system resource;pricing scheme;section show;total saving;reserve requirement;independent country;european commission;multilateral institution;trading partner;trade price;future market;energy import;related agreement;put pressure;domestic interest;water share;electricity system;integrated system;price level;intergovernmental agreement;irrigation purpose;cash value;import substitution;water flow;electrical demand;hydroelectric resource;carbon cost;regional consumption;regional growth;hydroelectric plant;aluminium smelter;energy exchange;energy shortage;avoided costs;total energy;fuel use;Power Generation;import value;regional capacity;import cost;applicable law;cost generation;

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Citation

Myroshnychenko,Yuriy Owen,Kirby

Enhancing regional power trade in Central Asia (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/672501486549955103/Enhancing-regional-power-trade-in-Central-Asia