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St. Vincent and Grenadines - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English)

The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) indicates that St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ public debt is sustainable but remains at high risk of distress for both external and overall public debt (unchanged from the previous assessment in the 2018 Article IV staff report). With the pandemic crisis and the economic contraction, the fiscal position will deteriorate in 2020, and total public and publicly guaranteed debt is expected to increase from 75.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 85.8 percent in 2020. Beyond 2021, the large port project will put additional pressure on public finances. The authorities are committed to increasing the central government primary balance from a deficit of 3.7 percent of GDP in 2020 to a surplus of no less than 2.1 percent of GDP by 2025, mainly through expenditure-side measures. This will put the debt-to-GDP ratio on a solid downward path after 2021 and make debt sustainable in a forward-looking sense. Under staff’s baseline scenario, the present value (PV) of public debt as a percent of GDP is projected to start falling in 2021 and that of external debt in 2024 but stay above indicative benchmarks for an extended period. The PV of debt-to-exports and the debt service-to-exports ratios will fall below the indicative threshold by 2021 and 2023, respectively.

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St. Vincent and Grenadines - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/697391594937407424/St-Vincent-and-Grenadines-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis