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Central African Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English)

This debt sustainability analysis (DSA) updates the joint World Bank - International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis of December 2019 to reflect the most recent outlook, which has been substantially altered by the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The Central African Republic (CAR) remains at high risk of external debt distress and overall high risk of debt distress, unchanged from the most recent DSA of December 2019. These risks have increased owing to the high uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While solvency indicators remain below their relevant thresholds, the disbursement under the RCF is projected to accentuate the breaches of the liquidity indicators over the medium term. Sensitivity of debt indicators to standard stress tests, the high uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic projections, a volatile security environment, and sizeable contingent liabilities are all considerations supporting the high-risk assessment. Debt is projected to remain sustainable over the medium term provided that the authorities move ahead with the policies and structural reforms committed under the ECF arrangement once the effects of the COVID crisis wear off. Given the difficult debt situation, staffs recommend that the government’s investment program requires grant financing, with concessional debt financing to be considered in exceptional cases. Updates of the economic impact and policy response to the COVID-19 crisis are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside.




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Central African Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.