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Kenya economic update : still standing - Kenya's slow recovery from a quadruple shock with a special focus on the food crisis (English)

This is the first edition of the Kenya Economic Update. This title of this report has two meanings, which are both true for Kenya today. First, the economy seems to stand still as economic growth barely matches population growth, indicating that Kenya continues to operate below its potential. Second, Kenya's economy has weathered four consecutive crises - post-election violence, global food crisis, global financial turmoil, and drought - well enough so that its economy is "still standing". This report looks at both of these dimensions and analyzes the weaknesses (and partial strengths) of the current growth momentum as well as Kenya's resilience, particularly with respect to the global financial crisis. This first issue of the Kenya Economic Update examines the ways in which the Kenyan economy has been affected by four waves of crises. Section one describes the growth outlook for 2009, and how the phenomenon of slow recovery manifested itself across the different sectors of activity. Section two drills deeper into the successive waves of crisis, the transmission mechanisms through which they affected the economy, as well as the government’s response to date. Finally, section three concludes the economic update with scenarios for growth in 2010 and an analysis of the assumptions behind them.

Details

  • Author

    Fengler. Wolfgang; Kiringai, Jane;

  • Document Date

    2009/12/01

  • Document Type

    Working Paper (Numbered Series)

  • Report Number

    54905

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Kenya,

  • Region

    Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2010/06/07

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Kenya economic update : still standing - Kenya's slow recovery from a quadruple shock with a special focus on the food crisis

  • Keywords

    food price;maize price;improvements in debt management;Cost of Doing Business;improving access to finance;social safety net program;global financial crisis;food crisis;current account deficit;Fiscal Stimulus;school feeding program;water and electricity;Foreign Exchange Reserve;Financial Sector;global trend;Social Safety Nets;consumer price index;public investment program;export of goods;commodity price data;global food prices;fiscal policy;Fiscal policies;Rural Poor;tourism;inflation;lack of competitiveness;school going child;transfer of remittance;positive spillover effect;terms of trade;proceeds from privatization;total public debt;fiber optic cable;foreign direct investment;agriculture and industry;domestic debt market;food price volatility;food crop production;population growth rate;domestic policy challenges;budget strategy;food insecure areas;long term maturity;food price policy;poverty reduction goal;investment in road;level of consumption;welfare of consumers;maize producer price;rapid population growth;high value crops;cash transfer program;reduced poverty;land holding size;drought tolerant crops;international good practice;food security situation;production due;bank lending rate;lack of rainfall;government bond market;acute food shortage;share of import;urban poor;fiscal deficit;agriculture sector;planting season;small farm;mobile money;transmission mechanism;real sector;capital flow;stock market;credit growth;arithmetic mean;fiscal position;trade deficit;banking sector;monetary policy;financial service;farm size;political crisis;weather condition;food production;external shock;workfare program;stimulus package;construction sector;Agricultural Technology;aggregate demand;import quota;vulnerable individual;exchange rate;Exchange Rates;infrastructure expenditure;urban household;farming household;kenyan shilling;budget deficit;oil price;maize farmers;government borrowing;marketing margin;maize production;poor farming;financial flow;food deficit;credit product;debt sustainability;wholesale maize;internal governance;marketed maize;sales income;core inflation;accurate assessment;negative shock;Tax Foregone;food buyer;travel destination;marketing policy;productivity growth;port tariff;landholding size;producer services;market level;staple food;producer incentive;world price;supply situation;import price;maize harvest;research show;food insecurity;large farmer;market intervention;current consumption;fiscal impulse;transport cost;market diversification;trading partner;protection measure;governance challenge;drought area;treasury bond;foreign bank;call center;external reserve;average inflation;broad stakeholder;donor agencies;broad money;household income;increase poverty;subsidy programs;gross revenue;maize subsidy;grain imports;grain price;effective strategy;maize sector;crop revenue;rural price;grain production;maize yield;agricultural output;public expenditure;domestic policies;fiscal space;foreign financing;downside scenario;price change;fiscal surplus;debt limit;international bond;Agricultural Trade;actual inflation;increased access;annex annex;budget speech;transaction flow;price decline;global demand;Capital Inflows;inflation level;trade balance;trade imbalance;agriculture production;maize import;volatile inflation;put pressure;treasury bill;Macroeconomic Stability;infrastructure bond;maize market;crisis affected;stock production;complementary reform;urban agricultural policy;educated workforce;civil society;negative growth;Macroeconomic Policy;wealth distribution;extension service;sectoral reform;price stability;export industry;internet connectivity;international standard;penetration rate;regular school;price trend;coffee production;statutory requirement;capital adequacy;manufactured products;input cost;power outage;banking system;inadequate rainfall;input price;retail price;cut flower;expected growth;tourist arrival;aggressive marketing;tourism revenue;tourism sector;tourism receipts;global market;merchandise export

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Citation

Fengler. Wolfgang; Kiringai, Jane;

Kenya economic update : still standing - Kenya's slow recovery from a quadruple shock with a special focus on the food crisis (English). Kenya economic update ; edition no. 1 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/736461468048841145/Kenya-economic-update-still-standing-Kenyas-slow-recovery-from-a-quadruple-shock-with-a-special-focus-on-the-food-crisis