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Haiti - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English)

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) was prepared in accordance with the revised joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability framework (DSF) for low-income countries (LICs). It updates the DSA prepared for the 2019 Article Four Consultation. Haiti’s risk of debt distress is assessed to be ‘high’, although the model-based risk rating for both external and overall public debt is ‘moderate.’ An application of judgement was applied to change the rating from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’ because of the high probability of threshold breaches under the baseline scenario from FY2033, and by Haiti’s institutional fragilities and exceptional vulnerability to natural disasters. Haiti is an FCV country, a country affected by fragility, conflict, and violence as defined by the World Bank, and tailored stress tests suggest that its debt risk rating is very vulnerable to large natural disaster shocks which are statistically very frequent. Nevertheless, the moderate level of public debt and broadly stable debt trajectory over the next ten years point to sustainable public debt.

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Haiti - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/738961592861004930/Haiti-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis