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Sudan - Country economic memorandum : realizing the potential for diversified development : Main report (English)

From 1999 to 2011 Sudan had a period where it benefited from extensive discoveries of natural wealth through oil. But the oil economy had also clear symptoms of Dutch disease. Agriculture suffered from neglect, and there were urgent calls to invest natural resource rents into economic diversification efforts. Relief to Sudan’s external debt crisis will be critical. The country economic memorandum (CEM) starts out with a series of simulations and a review of recent key literature on growth and diversification with the aim of defining a suitable approach for growth and diversification for Sudan. The sectoral structure of Sudan’s economy shows the growing importance of agriculture, less importance of extractives, and relative stability of other sectors (manufacturing, services) by 2030. Looking at other economies that were successful in their diversification efforts shows that they were able to broaden their endowments base by maximizing a triad of institutions to deliver services that ultimately increase productivity. The CEM finds that there is a case for Sudan to approach growth through diversification from two angles: the production and the endowment base, both of which rely on the effective utilization of key institutions. This analysis therefore uses a sectoral focus and looks at agriculture as sources for diversification, but also makes the case that trading of goods and services - especially of the higher value-added kind - can be a means to grow the endowment base of the country.

Details

  • Author

    Geiger,Michael Tobias, Lofgren,Hans, Bogoev,Jane, Nishiuchi,Toru, Nguyen, Ha, Garlick,Robert James, Lyasse,Omar, Yousif,Iman Sachet, Goldberg,Joseph R., Ferrantino,Michael Joseph, Schmidt,Gabriela, Dihel,Nora Carina, Fernandes,Ana Margarida, Ferro,Esteban, Battaile,William G., Land,Bryan Christopher

  • Document Date

    2015/09/30

  • Document Type

    Country Economic Memorandum

  • Report Number

    103352

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    2

  • Country

    Sudan,

  • Region

    Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2016/09/23

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Main report

  • Keywords

    Agriculture;real exchange rate depreciation;real economic growth rate;diversified development;manufactured export;gross fixed capital formation;total factor productivity growth;market exchange rate;domestic crude oil production;maquette for mdg simulations;Public and Publicly Guaranteed;natural resource rent;oil economy;terms of trade;inflation;exchange rate adjustment;savings and investment;natural resource revenue;financial sector development;management of resources;industry and manufacturing;balance of payment;public goods provision;number of jobs;reclamation of land;exchange rate policy;agriculture and service;private external debt;external debt crisis;agricultural productivity growth;barrels per day;investment and development;oil revenue stabilization;net oil export;debt service obligation;natural resource sector;Exchange rate policies;process of decentralization;consolidation of peace;incidence of poverty;Governance and Accountability;peace and development;conflict and fragility;external public debt;share of output;distribution of resource;basic service provision;high productivity jobs;formal labor market;nominal exchange rate;primarily due;current account deficit;elimination of subsidy;fiscal consolidation effort;provision of service;export of goods;reduction in poverty;participation of citizens;share of export;parallel exchange rate;Business Enabling Environment;overvalued exchange rate;export growth;saving rate;Public Services;rural area;fiscal revenue;export performance;debt relief;Exchange Rates;fiscal decentralization;oil boom;medium-term outlook;inflation rate;dutch disease;alternative scenarios;gum arabic;oil price;financial system;export price;Export Diversification;protecting investor;foreign debt;oil reserve;heavily dependent;index base;political environment;output growth;budget deficit;high inflation;inclusive growth;landlocked country;fiscally sustainable;economic diversification;program leader;governance challenge;grain storage;livestock export;financial sanctions;private service;domestic demand;gold production;agriculture sector;capita consumption;historical growth;simulation model;financial mean;land policy;land policies;support structure;Land tenure;export product;Capital Investments;domestic sources;gross investment;sector structure;trade elasticity;inflation expectation;land market;foreign borrowing;national endowment;goods trade;agricultural support;trade sanctions;aggregate indicator;procurement process;direct loan;production base;import growth;welfare impact;extractive sector;multilateral creditor;household survey;fiscal support;geographic location;domestic regulation;export promotion;export sector;price stability;debt burden;real export;foreign relations;import price;agricultural sector;political situation;public saving;Support for Agriculture;public revenue;natural wealth;export volume;external cause;bear witness;gold rush;global recession;age composition;foreign bank;monetary impact;financial market;export orientation;off-farm employment;Mineral Sector;core inflation;technology adoption;high wage;foreign exchange;export quantity;payment flow;inspection regime;oil transit;oil subsidy;crop agriculture;employment status;dependency ratio;management capability;Fiscal policies;price source;domestic transfer;domestic borrowing;rural phenomenon;export concentration;urban woman;investment increase;external market;bilateral creditor;effective growth;balanced budget;national economy;small fraction;product level;borrowing limit;increase productivity;gold miner;macro indicators;Macroeconomic Stability;education spending;stakeholder discussions;domestic production;oil flow;oil infrastructure;data gathering;financing agreement;logistical support;household welfare;world economy;debt forgiveness;fiscal policy;mineral wealth;government budget;safety hazard;rural population;rural woman;investor protection;nominal depreciation;bank finance;cross-border payment;financial soundness;fiscal austerity;fiscal choice

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Citation

Geiger,Michael Tobias Lofgren,Hans Bogoev,Jane Nishiuchi,Toru Nguyen, Ha Garlick,Robert James Lyasse,Omar Yousif,Iman Sachet Goldberg,Joseph R. Ferrantino,Michael Joseph Schmidt,Gabriela Dihel,Nora Carina Fernandes,Ana Margarida Ferro,Esteban Battaile,William G. Land,Bryan Christopher

Sudan - Country economic memorandum : realizing the potential for diversified development : Main report (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/771411474649783837/Main-report