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China 2020 : development challenges in the new century (Chinese)

For China, swift growth and structural change, while resolving many problems, have created new challenges: employment insecurity, growing inequality, stubborn poverty, mounting environmental pressures, and periods of macroeconomic instability stemming from incomplete reforms. This report argues that China has the capacity to meet these challenges and sustain rapid growth because it has relative stability, a remarkably high savings rate, a strong track record of pragmatic reforms, a supportive Chinese diaspora, and a growing administrative capacity. These strengths can provide a platform for additional reforms needed in three major areas: First, market forces must be encouraged, especially through the reform of state enterprises, the financial system, grain and labor markets, and natural resources pricing. Second, the government must begin serving markets by building the legal, social, physical, and institutional infrastructure needed for rapid growth. Finally, integration with the world economy must be deepened by lowering import barriers, increasing the transparency and predictability of the trade regime, and gradually integrating with international financial markets. Chapter 2 enunciates the report's twin concerns -the pace and sustainability of China's growth- and examines China's growth potential over the long term using a simple model of growth and structural change. Chapter 3 argues that further separating the roles of government and markets and clarifying rights and responsibilities will help lay the foundations for sustained rapid growth and improve the quality of people's lives. Chapter 4 examines the five areas where government action is needed to manage the risks to the population that accompany societal change, including raising living standards for the absolute poor; providing financial security for the elderly; providing access to affordable health care; removing bias against women; and reducing high and prolonged unemployment. Chapter 5 compares the two routes China could take in giving agriculture high priority: obtaining grain self-sufficiency or using trade in agricultural products as a disciplinary device to encourage efficient domestic production. Chapters 6, 7, and 8 focus respectively on protecting the environment, integrating with the world economy, and ultimately fashioning the appropriate political vision to chart China's course into the year 2020.


  • Author

    Nehru, Vikram Kraay, Aart Xiaoqing Yu

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    East Asia and Pacific,

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    China 2020 : development challenges in the new century

  • Keywords

    Market competition; Commodity markets; Public enterprises; Capital markets; Grain industry; Natural resources; Pricing; Infrastructure; Legislation; Trade barriers; International capital markets; Economic growth; Denationalization; Quality of life; Poverty mitigation; Social security; Health care; Women in development; Unemployment; Agricultural products; Environmental protection; Labor markets



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Nehru, Vikram Kraay, Aart Xiaoqing Yu

China 2020 : development challenges in the new century (Chinese). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.