Chad’s risks of external and overall debt distress are high but have nonetheless declined in the past year. All but one external debt sustainability indicators are below their respective thresholds from 2019 onwards. The debt-to-revenue ratio moderately breaches its threshold under the baseline scenario. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The debt sustainability analysis is based on projected continued fiscal prudence and an increase in non-oil revenues. Following the restructuring in 2018, the new Glencore debt contract has helped contain the impact of low oil prices on debt sustainability, as it allows for lower debt service when oil prices are lower.
Details
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Document Date
2019/07/31
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Document Type
Working Paper
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Report Number
142554
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Volume No
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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Country
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Region
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Disclosure Date
2019/10/11
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Doc Name
Chad - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis : July 2019
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Keywords
public debt; baseline scenario; oil price; debt service; domestic arrears; state-owned enterprise; external debt sustainability; present value; debt sustainability analysis; Public and Publicly Guaranteed; debt service to export; debt contract; total public debt; domestic debt stock; external debt stock; access to external finance; financial market; forecast horizon; contingency mechanism; lower oil price; public external debt; risk of debt; prudent fiscal policy; external debt service; African Development Fund; contingent liabilities; contingent liability; total debt; bilateral creditor; alternative scenarios; debt restructuring; commercial debt; european investment bank; external public debt; social security fund; regional development bank; extra budgetary fund; accumulation of arrears; external commercial borrowing; domestic public debt; central bank financing; public sector investment; public debt sustainability; debt service burden; public sector entity; oil price decline; real growth rate; Public Sector Enterprises; commodity price shock; low oil price; public sector debt; national development plan; average interest rate; high oil revenue; short term debt; external arrears; sensitivity analysis; export ratio; world economic; oil sector; private investment; oil production; Learning and Innovation Credit; fiscal prudence; local debt; debt burden; currency basis; composite indicator; domestic borrowing
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Citation
Chad - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis : July 2019 (English). Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/854171570788892568/Chad-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-July-2019