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Tajikistan - Economic Slowdown Amid the Pandemic (English)

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant adverse impact on the Tajik economy. Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2020, compared to 7.2 percent a year earlier. Restrictions on labor mobility and economic activity at home and abroad resulted in lower migrant remittances, weaker consumer demand, and reduced investments. Although exports enjoyed a record global demand for gold, the domestic market collapsed, suggesting a more severe impact of COVID-19 on domestic jobs and incomes. A growing share of the population reported reducing their food consumption, and the inability of previously returned migrants to travel abroad led to a significant increase in the unemployment rate. The healthcare system faces unprecedented pressure to accommodate a sudden influx of patients. International financial institutions and partner countries rushed with financial and in-kind aid to help Tajikistan contain the pandemic’s impact. In an effort to ameliorate the economic fallout, the authorities deferred tax collections, boosted health and social spending, and eased monetary policy. They established an interagency task force to address health challenges emerging from the pandemic.

Details

  • Author

    Ziyaev,Bakhrom, Seitz,William Hutchins, Rajabov,Alisher

  • Document Date

    2020/12/21

  • Document Type

    Working Paper

  • Report Number

    155280

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    2

  • Country

    Tajikistan,

  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2020/12/22

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Tajikistan - Economic Slowdown Amid the Pandemic

  • Keywords

    economic slowdown; external account; Capital Adequacy Ratio; consumer price inflation; remittance; access to foreign exchange; monetary policy; state budget; risk of debt; time per day; public sector wage; precious metal; tax collection; value-added tax; interagency task force; households with migrants; Migration and Remittances; public debt sustainability; trade and investment; maintenance and repair; migrants sending remittance; official exchange rate; foreign direct investment; weights and measure; errors and omission; gross fixed investment; significant adverse impact; social assistance program; taxes on goods; return on asset; targeted social assistance; open foreign exchange; private sector credit; domestic private sector; monetary accounts; average exchange rate; volume of deposit; private consumption growth; tight monetary policy; average interest rate; foreign labor markets; impact on health; agriculture and industry; lower interest rate; current account deficit; social protection system; export of gold; external public debt; foreign exchange inflow; exchange rate pressures; force majeure situation; foreign currency deposit; deferred tax payment; social insurance contribution; machinery and equipment; fiscal balance; global demand; fiscal account; fiscal deficit; Financial Sector; Medical care; fiscal space; financial situation; social spending; health situation; emergency credit; social indicator; migrant remittance; financial difficulties; domestic demand; Exchange Rates; inflationary pressure; external position; import price; budget support; merchandise export; external deficit; real gdp; consumer demand; baseline scenario; capital account; tax receipt; information sources; high share; unemployment rate; tax revenue; public finance; Financial Stability; higher deficit; vulnerable group; loan portfolio; financial indicator; restaurant service; passenger turnover; commercial bank; budget expenditure; export price; Energy Sector; state administration; electricity price; eligible family; healthcare sector; pandemic spread; medical capacity; administrative adjustment; foreign investor; credit expansion; debt ceilings; social contribution; debt repayment; financial intermediation; merchandise trade; primary income; portfolio investment; capital flow; bilateral debt; reserve asset; bilateral creditor; high spending; budgetary spending; new equipment; net outflow; net inflows; lower revenue; Fiscal policies; fiscal policy; net lending; tourism company; export basket; mineral product; primary commodity; private borrower; grace period; lending institution; national currency; government balance; tax arrears; capital expenditure; current expenditure; migrant transfer; loan disbursement; merchandise import; debt level; fiscal relief; debt service; domestic employment; food insecurity; job loss; government consumption; job generation; poverty alleviation; rehabilitation plan; tax system; financial strain; tax base; return migrant; healthcare system; pandemic strain; export commodity; partner country; health challenge; healthcare expenditure; coping mechanism; life expectancy; gini coefficient; Population Growth; reserve money; gross investment; rural area; noncommercial purposes; social distance; subsidiary right; basic good; food processing; Coping Mechanisms; dietary diversity; basic necessity; poor household; socio-economic development; remittance transfer; income loss; employment arrangements; recipient household; remittance income; administrative support; business environment; borrower default; financial system; Tax Code; budget target; fiscal consolidation; sector output; official estimates; poultry sector; household consumption; sustainable level; domestic income; travel restriction; production capacity; projection period; trade activity; regulatory capital; arable land; industrial production; liquidity support; remittance inflow; heavy reliance; monetary authority; banking sector; economic recovery; external trade

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Citation

Ziyaev,Bakhrom Seitz,William Hutchins Rajabov,Alisher

Tajikistan - Economic Slowdown Amid the Pandemic (English). Tajikistan economic update Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/856841608613708986/Tajikistan-Economic-Slowdown-Amid-the-Pandemic