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China Economic Update : Leaning Forward - COVID-19 and China’s Reform Agenda (English)

Economic conditions in China have changed dramatically over the past six months. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and measures taken to contain it have triggered a combined demand and supply shock. The report projects that economic growth in China will slow sharply to 1.6 percent this year–marking the slowest expansion since 1976–before rebounding to 7.9 percent in 2021. Even as economic activity rebounds, the pace of China's poverty reduction is expected to slow, reflecting slower growth in household incomes. Without additional policy measures, 8-20 million fewer people are projected to escape poverty in 2020, compared to pre-pandemic projections. While risks to China's economic outlook are exceptionally high, they can be partially mitigated by a forward-looking recovery strategy supported by good policies. The recovery offers an opportunity to accelerate China's progress in rebalancing its economy toward more inclusive, sustainable, and greener growth.


  • Author

    Zhao,Luan, Eckardt,Sebastian, Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T., Lugo,Maria Ana, Nair,Dinesh M., Wang,Dewen, Yemtsov,Ruslan G., Chowdhury,Ibrahim Saeed, Huang,Yang, Niu,Chiyu, Alawode,Abayomi A., Islamaj,Ergys, Ruch,Franz Ulrich, Lee,Woori, Han,Wei-000505642, Constantinescu,Ileana Cristina, Li,Yusha, Li,Yan - EEAM1

  • Document Date


  • Document Type

    Economic Updates and Modeling

  • Report Number


  • Volume No


  • Total Volume(s)


  • Country


  • Region

    East Asia and Pacific,

  • Disclosure Date


  • Disclosure Status


  • Doc Name

    China Economic Update : Leaning Forward - COVID-19 and China’s Reform Agenda

  • Keywords

    Earnings Before Interest and Taxes; protection of intellectual property right; health in all policies; small and medium size enterprise; highly pathogenic avian influenza; global value chain; disease surveillance and control; crude oil price fall; state-owned company; disposable income per capita; active labor market program; household disposable income; retail sale; global financial crisis; trade and investment; per capita income; global supply chain; machinery and equipment; global economic development; flow of credit; household saving rate; stock market turnover; refined petroleum product; financial sector policy; essential medical supplies; real estate investment; lower household income; balance of payment; local government financing; Growth and Trade; emerging infectious disease; public sector debt; return on asset; african swine fever; producer price; private real estate; indicator of consumption; high debt levels; market exchange rate; current account balance; public health risk; public health response; decline in revenue; health care professional; second world war; enhancing market access; place of work; demand for good; movement of labor; global oil production; effects of income; commodity price index; IS Building; incomes of workers; change in expenditure; human capital formation; household survey data; public investment program; reallocation of resource; household expenditure data; private consumption expenditure; open market operation; global recession; import value; percent change; backward linkages; private investment; Haver Analytics; social distance; industrial production; bilateral trade; forward linkages; industrial value; global economy; medical supply; trade flow; income loss; corporate revenue; global trade; labor shortage; supply side; investment growth; export orders; output growth; fixed asset; Fixed Assets; external demand; global demand; global index; monetary policy; domestic demand; manufacturing sector; goods export; output gap; food product; subway passenger; liquidity provision; paper product; poverty headcount; total credit; crop farm; budget deficit; production growth; school closure; poultry meat; agricultural producer; informal labor; green growth; ripple effect; Fiscal policies; fiscal policy; trade value; supply disruption; retail trade; property investment; advanced economy; trade datum; global finance; public finance; capital outflow; commodity market; fiscal balance; agricultural production; economic sector; global risk; recent development; Fiscal Stimulus; export value; electronic product; travel restriction; liquidity injection; baseline forecast; single source; domestic flight; trade deal; market rate; credit growth; rising unemployment; behavioral impact; confidence interval; social interaction; supply shock; migrant worker; external trade; consumer good; trade balance; liquidity support; international travel; volatility index; equity market; credit market; tourist arrival; trade representative; border delays; international transport; production shortfall; production disruption; total trade; supply capacity; demand shock; wood product; financing cost; policy uncertainty; retail service; geopolitical tension; behavioral response; trading pattern; migrant labor; human interaction; labor supply; real wage; digital equipment; fiscal measure; aggregate growth; global output; regional economy; international mobility; recurrent outbreak; cross border; import growth; import demand; asset purchase; reserve requirement; electronic equipment; emergency measure; export product; electrical equipment; high-tech product; million people; medical equipment; export drive; net export; production side; state sector; protective equipment; public place; international traveler; land border; farm labor; production input; disease outbreak; live poultry; logistical problems; entertainment sectors; industrial sector; consumer spend; high frequency; unemployment level; aviation impact; agricultural sector



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Zhao,Luan Eckardt,Sebastian Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T. Lugo,Maria Ana Nair,Dinesh M. Wang,Dewen Yemtsov,Ruslan G. Chowdhury,Ibrahim Saeed Huang,Yang Niu,Chiyu Alawode,Abayomi A. Islamaj,Ergys Ruch,Franz Ulrich Lee,Woori Han,Wei-000505642 Constantinescu,Ileana Cristina Li,Yusha Li,Yan - EEAM1

China Economic Update : Leaning Forward - COVID-19 and China’s Reform Agenda (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.