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Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil (English)

As more and more Venezuelans leave their country, fleeing the economic and social crisis, the number of Venezuelans in Brazil has risen steadily since 2016, constituting about 18 percent of Brazil's 1.3 million refugee and migrant population as of October 2020. Although the economic gains of immigration are well-documented in the literature, the impacts of forced displacement on the labor market and government budget are mixed and have mainly focused on developed countries. This paper extends the previous literature by exploring the short-run fiscal impact of Venezuelan refugees and migrants on the public expenditure and revenue of Roraima, the state bordering the República Bolivariana de Venezuela at the north and the main gateway of the Venezuelan refugees and migrants entering Brazil, and by investigating their impact on its labor market. Using various administrative and survey data and a regression discontinuity framework, the paper finds that the population shock caused by the influx of forcibly displaced Venezuelans in the short-run did not have any statistically significant effect on the fiscal variables of Roraima. On the labor market, the paper finds that the population shock translated into an increase in unemployment among women and a decrease in employment among women and low skilled workers in the short-run. The effects on earnings are heterogenous across industries, but mainly positive for the high skilled and male workers, suggesting a need for cross-cutting policies that target the most vulnerable host population as well as the forcibly displaced.


  • Author

    Shamsuddin,Mrittika, Acosta,Pablo Ariel, Battaglin Schwengber,Rovane, Fix,Jedediah Rooney, Pirani,Nikolas

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  • Document Type

    Policy Research Working Paper

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  • Country


    Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de

  • Region

    Latin America & Caribbean,

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  • Doc Name

    Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil

  • Keywords

    migrant; Labor Market; labor market outcome; national gdp; real gdp; universal access to education; collected information; increase in government expenditure; working age population; forced displacement; gross income; labor market impact; asylum seeker; source of revenue; categories of expenditure; expenditure in education; expenditure education; social assistance program; public expenditure; increase in labor; circulation of goods; number of migrants; billion people; human rights violation; new employment opportunity; Internally Displaced Person; labor market variable; labor market experience; basic human right; employment in agriculture; increase in population; amount of fund; unemployment among woman; impact of refugees; time series data; cash transfer program; conditional cash transfer; living in poverty; movement across border; people with disability; solid line; confidence interval; total employment; international aid; monthly data; humanitarian crisis; raw data; personnel spending; population increase; humanitarian assistance; federal government; cation analysis; in work; government revenue; displaced worker; social crisis; social security; diaspora population; robustness check; native worker; national household; sample survey; federal level; utility sector; industry sector; native community; welfare program; displacement crisis; Public Services; monthly income; male worker; Host Communities; small sample; live birth; household income; formal employment; informal sector; informal worker; fiscal impact; economic integration; gender ratio; trade volume; municipal government; total stock; economic crisis; civil organizations; relocation program; depreciation rate; education health; real value; Social Welfare; border control; survey data; time sery; monthly expenditure; recent studies; collect tax; static analysis; wage loss; random variable; expenditure increase; work permit; international community; expenditure shock; test statistic; private aid; Real estate; fiscal variable; funding requirements; interagency coordination; government budget; data limitation; advanced country; average age; government spending; household size; funding support; causal impact; legal constraint; endogeneity issue; population data; Displaced Population; indicator function; independent variable; consumer demand; global knowledge; fundamental problem; under treatment; humanitarian agency; social condition; refugee population; sample mean; health condition; high unemployment; labor supply; public resource; host population; functional form; immigration status; body weight; Social Protection; survey sample; take time; mean square; tax base; Research Support; public revenue; informal employment; Infant Mortality; agriculture industry; total migrants; social contribution; standard error; migrant population; correct estimate; eligible family; development policy; extreme poverty; open access; summary statistic; migration trend; additional expense; excess supply; regression function; municipal revenue; federal transfer; International Trade; vulnerable group; linear approximation; linear regression; disproportionate burden; family composition



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Shamsuddin,Mrittika Acosta,Pablo Ariel Battaglin Schwengber,Rovane Fix,Jedediah Rooney Pirani,Nikolas

Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 9797 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.