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Taking stock : an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments (English)

The global economy appears to be transitioning toward a period of more stable albeit moderate pace of growth. Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which slowed in mid-2012, is recovering and a modest acceleration in quarterly GDP is expected during the course of 2013. In the developing world growth remains solid, but there are some signs of easing. More than four years after the financial crisis started, global industrial output is only 5.3 percent higher than its pre-crisis peak. While the global financial market conditions continue to improve, eventual phasing out of quantitative easing in advanced economies is beginning to worry investors. The improvement in financial conditions can be seen in lower yields on long-term debt, higher stock market returns and near-record flow of gross capital to developing countries. Vietnam's economy is experiencing its longest spell of slow growth since the onset of economic reforms in the late-1980s. Real GDP grew by 5 percent in 2012, the lowest level since 1998. The economy extended its slow growth into the first half of 2013, registering a growth rate of 4.9 percent in the first quarter and 5 percent in the second quarter. This is the first time that Vietnam has experienced two consecutive years of sub-5 percent growth in the first half of the year since it started publishing quarterly GDP. In fact what had distinguished Vietnam from other countries is its ability to recover rapidly after an economic shock-be it during the East Asian crisis in 1999 or the global financial crisis in 2009. However, Vietnam has found it harder to take timely and decisive actions to jumpstart its economy from the current growth slowdown. Vietnam is the only large developing country in the East Asia and Pacific region other than China whose post-crisis growth rate has been lower than its pre-crisis level.

Details

  • Document Date

    2013/07/10

  • Document Type

    Other Poverty Study

  • Report Number

    79780

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Vietnam,

  • Region

    East Asia and Pacific,

  • Disclosure Date

    2013/07/26

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Taking stock : an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments

  • Keywords

    global economic outlook;global economic prospect;small and medium enterprise;State Bank of Vietnam;world development indicator;balance of payment;current account surplus;foreign direct investment;agriculture and industry;barrel of oil;global capital market;machinery and equipment;global financial crisis;cost of capital;value added tax;household living standard;private sector indebtedness;consumer price index;decline in investment;credit default swap;bank of england;global financial market;global supply chain;global economic crisis;exchange rate band;official exchange rate;stable exchange rate;errors and omission;effect of stabilization;corporate income tax;share of export;Small Medium Enterprise;asset management companies;deferred tax payment;chamber of commerce;asset management company;millennium development goal;international capital market;price of good;local currency bond;initial public offering;global economic recovery;high income economy;drag on growth;corporate governance reform;industrial production;global economy;commodity price;trade balance;macroeconomic condition;trade surplus;export basket;inflationary pressure;monetary policy;import value;private consumption;global trade;food price;net export;trade deficit;increased supply;agricultural product;household consumption;manufacturing export;foreign investor;core inflation;tax incentive;equity market;textile materials;domestic demand;merchandise export;import growth;merchandise import;export performance;borrowing cost;Macroeconomic Policy;macroeconomic instability;chemical material;advanced economy;Macroeconomic Stability;real sector;international bond;country risk;investment demand;export value;capital account;commodity export;external account;import needs;equity placement;trade account;smaller share;logistics cost;high unemployment;trading partner;positive growth;bank lending;manufacturing sector;automobile part;retail sale;domestic enterprise;sustained flow;international reserve;macroeconomic environment;adequate supply;external capital;consumption demand;raw material;capital good;tar sand;electricity sector;portfolio investment;bond yield;wood product;transport vehicle;supply disruption;investment behavior;export market;fiscal burden;treasury yield;bond issuance;equity issuance;industrial sector;asset price;advanced country;country debt;sovereign credit;Capital Investments;domestic retail;plastic products;market condition;fishery sector;fiscal restructuring;Fiscal policies;tax break;diminishing return;fiscal deficit;Durable goods;banking sector;fiscal policy;contingent liability;world growth;existing technology;industrial growth;global growth;production network;import cost;economic reform;domestic crisis;metal price;energy price;long-term equilibrium;contingent liabilities;monetary condition;Exchange Rates;capital flow;moderate inflation;public debt;monetary base;domestic asset;fertilizer price;bond market;production cost;local debt;supply condition;investment position;output gap;consumption pattern;agricultural commodity;political turmoil;oil price;Labor Market;long-term debt;stock market;commodity trade;Fiscal Stimulus;tax increase;real cost;socio-economic development;commercial bank;dollar value;import volume;government bond;macroeconomic problem;low-income household;business environment;social housing;investment rate;excessive lending;state sector;credit growth;weather condition;investment ratio;political stability;consumption growth;investment rise;government issue;financial leasing;base year;corporate sector;petroleum product;agricultural material;intermediate product;

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Citation

Taking stock : an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/960131468138894191/Taking-stock-an-update-on-Vietnams-recent-economic-developments