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Liberia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English)

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) continues to assess Liberia at moderate risk of external debt distress and high risk of overall public debt distress, with very limited space to accommodate shocks and an extended breach of the Present Value (PV) of public debt-to-GDP ratio. However, public debt is assessed to be sustainable as (i) both the PV of public debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-revenue ratios are projected to be on a downward trend and (ii) the high PV of public debt ratios largely reflect debt to the central bank, for which the interest rate is relatively low but is not discounted in the PV calculations. The rollover risk of domestic debt is low as most of the domestic debt is the government’s consolidated debt to the CBL. To keep debt distress vulnerabilities contained, it will be important to maintain fiscal discipline and rely on concessional financing.

Details

  • Document Date

    2020/12/01

  • Document Type

    Board Report

  • Report Number

    155858

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Liberia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2021/01/14

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Liberia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

  • Keywords

    public debt; real gdp; debt service; debt-creating flow; current account deficit; financing need; public sector debt; primary balance; domestic debt; real interest rate; Public and Publicly Guaranteed; real exchange rate depreciation; excise tax on fuel; external debt sustainability; terms of trade shock; contingent liability; contingent liabilities; export ratio; commodity price shock; nominal interest rate; grace period; primary deficit; central bank financing; total public debt; external borrowing; guaranteed debt; average exchange rate; private external debt; exchange rate change; debt service relief; debt sustainability analysis; risk of debt; central government guarantee; total external debt; private sector debt; public health needs; tight monetary policy; exchange rate projections; publicly guarantee debt; quality of debt; debt dynamics equation; macroeconomic and fiscal; balance of payment; central government debt; public sector borrowing; central bank debt; fiscal policy adjustment; extra budgetary fund; budgetary central government; external debt service; exchange rate appreciation; change in arrears; external debt stock; debt management strategy; civil service payroll; revenue ratio increase; domestic revenue mobilization; social security fund; Effective interest rate; banking sector; debt relief; dollar term; concessional financing; fiscal deficit; data availability; grant element; natural disaster; Exchange Rates; market financing; short-term debt; alternative scenarios

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Citation

Liberia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/962561610634532675/Liberia-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis