Skip to Main Navigation

Assessment of Contributing Factors of the May 2021 Disasters in Tajikistan : A Forensic Study Under the Strengthening Critical Infrastructure Against Natural Hazards Project (English)

This document reports the findings of a forensic assessment of the flood, mudflow, and mass movement disasters which struck Tajikistan in May 2021. The assessment used satellite information, global hydrological and topographic data, ground station data, and model results. It was found that most of the 2021 floods and mudflows originated in existing high-risk river channels, with damages enhanced by increased human exposure. Overgrazing and deforestation are likely to have exacerbated the disasters. While the rainfall events were extreme, they will become more frequent due to climate change. In addition, a shift of snowmelt by up to one month earlier in the year could increase the likelihood that extreme rainfall coincides with high soil moisture and base flows, further increasing the future risks of such events. Droughts during the summer months will likely increase, as will the risks from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

Details

  • Author

    Fiddes,Joel Allen,Simon Frey,Holger

  • Document Date

    2021/05/01

  • Document Type

    Report

  • Report Number

    165000

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Tajikistan,

  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2021/10/12

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Assessment of Contributing Factors of the May 2021 Disasters in Tajikistan : A Forensic Study Under the Strengthening Critical Infrastructure Against Natural Hazards Project

  • Keywords

    affected districts; flood; bare ground; snow cover; glacial lake outburst; regional climate model; mass movement; catchment; heavy precipitation events; extreme rainfall events; damage to buildings; low population density; greenhouse gas concentration; heavy rainfall events; large flood event; snow water equivalent; rapid urban expansion; extreme precipitation; river runoff; soil moisture; Urban Infrastructure; snow melt; river discharge; spatial patterns; base flow; humid regions; summer months; affected population; precipitation rate; annual precipitation; satellite imagery; high resolution; hydrological basins; satellite data; dry condition; central regions; affected households; river embankments; emission scenario; supervised classification; flood condition; small area; river area; hydrological characteristic; historical context; hazard map; average values; urban landscape; intense precipitation; meteorological stations; soil change; valley bottoms; upstream region; soil stability; radiative flux; arid regime; cluster scheme; surface area; surface variables; need assessment; district households; pasture land; high road; hydrological information; steam capacity; temporal change; cropland pasture; road density; hilly area; commercial properties; exposure level; mountainous country; monitoring network; adequate coverage; available data; flood channel; climate regime; recent years; weather systems; precipitation intensity; field study; sediment volume; sediment deposition; administrative boundary; high precipitation; commercial areas; residential area; glacial melt; hydrological model; snow accumulation; process model; national emergency; glacier retreat; flood hazard; spatial planning; land-use change; remote sensing; primary information; reduction measure; international policy; basic requirement; model result; mountainous region; consensus estimate; ice thickness; hydrological response; global river; baseline data; river system; hydrological process; catchment characteristics; climate drivers; climate scenario; glacier melt; mountain area; glacier area; river bed; small rivers; low density; flood plain; flood defense; climatic change; low elevation; base assessment; absolute amount; meteorological hazards; sectoral investment; arid region

Downloads

COMPLETE REPORT

Official version of document (may contain signatures, etc)

  • Official PDF
  • TXT*
  • Total Downloads** :
  • Download Stats
  • *The text version is uncorrected OCR text and is included solely to benefit users with slow connectivity.

Citation

Fiddes,Joel Allen,Simon Frey,Holger

Assessment of Contributing Factors of the May 2021 Disasters in Tajikistan : A Forensic Study Under the Strengthening Critical Infrastructure Against Natural Hazards Project (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/970831634014306459/Assessment-of-Contributing-Factors-of-the-May-2021-Disasters-in-Tajikistan-A-Forensic-Study-Under-the-Strengthening-Critical-Infrastructure-Against-Natural-Hazards-Project