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Iraq Economic Monitor : The Slippery Road to Economic Recovery (English)

The fall 2021 issue of the Iraq Economic Monitor provides an in-depth review of the latest macroeconomic and policy developments amidst a global recovery in international oil markets and as COVID-19 restrictions begin to ease. As a result, the monitor finds that the economic prospects for Iraq have improved, with GDP projected to grow from 2.6 percent in 2021 to exceed 6 percent in 2022-23, turning both fiscal and external deficits into surpluses. Nevertheless, upstream risks like oil shocks, droughts, and new COVID-19 variants; coupled with fiscal risks like growing budget rigidities, slow clearance of arrears, large exposure of state-owned banks and the central bank to the sovereign, and public investment management constraints that impact public service delivery can all materialize anytime to turn the tide as Iraq’s recent history has repeatedly shown. The breadth and depth of these challenges underscore the need for an accelerated implementation of structural reforms by the new government along the lines of the White of Paper. The Special Focus of the report discusses water scarcity and the degradation of water quality in Iraq. It highlights the large losses water issues impose across multiple sectors of the economy and the impact on vulnerable people. Indeed, a 20 percent reduction in water supply with changes in crop yields could reduce real GDP in Iraq by up to 4 percent, or US$6.6 billion. The monitor highlights the importance of dealing with those issues to reduce fragilities and identifies three reform areas to improve resilience to water scarcity and climate change impacts through water efficiency, productivity, and demand management policies; institutional solutions; and regional solutions.


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  • Document Type

    Economic Updates and Modeling

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  • Region

    Middle East and North Africa,

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  • Doc Name

    Iraq Economic Monitor : The Slippery Road to Economic Recovery

  • Keywords

    water sector; economic recovery; water scarcity; Water Resource Management; climate change impact; Water and Land; water supply and sanitation service; small and medium size enterprise; oil price; Oil Export; tragedy of the commons; real gross domestic product; labor force participation rate; impact of climate change; operation and maintenance expenditure; water demand management policies; current account balance; oil market condition; high oil price; oil production; fiscal balance; impacts of drought; regional economic integration; increase poverty; public service delivery; demand management policy; water sector reform; public investment management; agricultural water withdrawals; allocation of water; sanitation service provision; quality of water; use of water; privileges and immunity; consumer price index; global oil market; process of reform; water and electricity; current account surplus; water service provider; water delivery costs; sanitation service delivery; Oil & Gas; Oil and Gas; domestic revenue mobilization; oil price decline; deteriorating water quality; changes in policy; private sector adjustment; balance of payment; water productivity; cubic feet; financial sustainability; institutional architecture; water availability; food product; trade balance; public finance; water reallocation; water efficiency



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Iraq Economic Monitor : The Slippery Road to Economic Recovery (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.