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Lebanon Risk and Resilience Assessment (Inglês)

Lebanon weathers a perfect storm of overlapping crises that have led to mounting, almost unprecedented socioeconomic hardship, threatening the country’s social and political stability. Chronic macroeconomic imbalances and misguided policies dating back decades resulted in a financial and economic crisis that has been described as one of the worst in recorded human history. At the root of Lebanon’s fragility lies an elite-level power-sharing arrangement that has entrenched a system of governance based on sectarian allegiance and patronage. The Beirut port explosion provides one of the most recent and catastrophic testimonies of how governance failures resulted in significant social harm and hardship. These crises are also challenging Lebanon’s core pillars of resilience. Against this background, this Risk and Resilience Assessment (RRA) analyzes Lebanon’s causes and drivers of fragility and resilience. This RRA is organized as follows: Section 1 provides an overview of the structural and historical factors of fragility. Section 2 discusses the overarching fragility constraints by applying the social-contract framework outlined above. Section 3 identifies key drivers of fragility in five main sectors. Section 4 turns to resilience factors while section 5 describes how the preceding discussion manifests in a set of short-term risks related to fragility, conflict and violence. Section 6 concludes by outlining priority areas for pathways out of fragility and provides recommendations for the World Bank.




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