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The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts (Inglês)

China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to improve connectivity between China and more than 70 countries through infrastructure investment and regional cooperation. The initiative has the potential to accelerate significantly the rate of economic integration and development in the region, as trade costs decline. The goals of this paper are to (i) study the impacts of infrastructure improvements on Belt and Road Initiative and non–Belt and Road Initiative countries' trade flows, growth, and poverty; and (ii) suggest policies that would help maximize gains from the Belt and Road Initiative–induced trade cost declines. The analysis captures the trade costs reductions as a result of infrastructure improvements. The findings indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative would be largely beneficial. First, global income increases by 0.7 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline). This translates into almost half a trillion dollars in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The Belt and Road Initiative area captures 82 percent of the gain, with the largest percent gains in East Asia. Second, globally, the Belt and Road Initiative could contribute to lifting 7.6 million people from extreme poverty and 32 million from moderate poverty. Third, the initiative would lead to a modest increase in global carbon dioxide emissions, with a complex set of positive and negative outcomes at the national level for other types of emissions.


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    Maliszewska,Maryla, Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique

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    Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas

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    Sul da Ásia,

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    The Belt and Road Initiative : Economic, Poverty and Environmental Impacts

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    trade costs; preferential reduction of tariffs; terms of trade growth; access to the sea; products of animal origin; dynamic computable general equilibrium; united nations population projections; household consumption per capita; global carbon dioxide emission; terms of poverty reduction; machinery and equipment; welfare gains; extreme poverty; energy intensive manufacturing; international poverty line; elasticity of substitution; market exchange rate; preferential tariff reduction; real income; multilateral tariff reduction; trade facilitation measures; global free trade; elasticity of trade; trade and transportation; greenhouse gas emission; total labor force; volatile organic compound; ad valorem equivalent; impacts of infrastructure; price of imports; low growth rate; rate of output; purchasing power parity; vehicle operating cost; increases in output; foreign direct investment; tariff import; tariff on import; real exchange rate; trade policy changes; national poverty standard; trade policy reform; per capita consumption; impact on poverty; gdp growth rate; quality of infrastructure; per capita income; share of labor; reduction in time; expansion of export; pattern of emissions; monte carlo simulation; cost of import; emissions from landfill; share of import; Water and Land; demand for good; nitrous oxide emission; Environment and Trade; expansion of trade; fast economic growth; composition of output; types of emission; country of origin; upper bind; leather good; border delays; labor displacement; processed food; import growth; metal product; moderate poverty; agricultural employment; air transport; internal trade; bilateral trade; trade flow; coal product; complementary policies; scale effect; export growth; transport service; sulfur dioxide; reduce trade; baseline scenario; Natural Resources; poverty estimate; high trade; investment scenario; domestic trade; radiative forcing; transport mode; transport cost; global emission; carbon cycle; social cost; equivalent variation; imported inputs; emissions implication; global welfare; emission growth; export demand; import increase; co2 emission; comparative advantage; public transportation mode; carbon emission; wood product; agricultural good; transport equipment; trading partner; relative price; market access; infrastructure expenditure; tariff liberalization; trade diversion; import good; cross-border trade; domestic absorption; net effect; income gain; sensitivity analysis; factor return; government expenditure; input mix; private consumption; productivity gain; average change; competitive sector; agricultural worker; welfare impact; relative poverty; agricultural sector; investment expenditure; cleaner production; simulation result; global export; local production; global distribution; negative relationship; open access; headcount rate; smaller number; poverty headcount; million people; negative effect; aggregate trade; tariff rate; displacement effect; base year; macroeconomic indicator; development policy; individual sectors; relative gain; skilled wage; health effect; Global Warming; unskilled worker; return increase; import demand; land owner; macroeconomic result; regional cooperation; technology shock; economic integration; rice production; negative value; lowering trade; employment increase; agriculture sector; employment effect; coal extraction; baseline conditions; export volume; multiplier effect; labor supply; cement manufacturing; land-use change; high-income region; business service; extractive sector; income increase; household data; paper product; domestic transportation; Trade Policies; positive impact; external demand; primary sector; profitable sector; trade changes; agricultural product; private investment; rail improvement; rail link; partner country; agricultural import; domestic product; port facility; railway line; road transportation; import data; agricultural economics; air ship; weighted tariff; global trade; sea transport; high share



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