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Commodity market outlook, January 2013 (Inglês)

Commodity prices ended 2012 close to where they began, but major global events created significant upward and downward price movements through the course of the year. The first half of 2012 brought declines in most commodity prices, especially energy and metals as European sovereign debt troubles intensified and emerging economies, especially China, slowed. Price pressures were distinctly upward in the second half of the year, however. Maize and wheat prices spiked as parts of the United States, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia were gripped by a summer heat wave. Crude oil prices were driven up after an EU embargo on Iranian oil imports went into effect in July and violence and political instability continued in several oil-producing countries in the Middle East. In addition, renewed monetary policy easing by the central banks of the EU and the United States as well as weakness of the US dollar put upward pressure on industrial commodities. Most commodity prices are expected to ease marginally in 2013. The forecast presented in this report indicates that crude oil will average US$102/bbl in 2013, just 3 percent lower than in 2012. Agricultural commodity prices are also forecast to decline: food by 3.2 percent, beverages by 4.7 percent, and raw materials by 2.2 percent. Metal prices are expected to rise slightly but still average 14 percent lower than in 2011. Fertilizer prices are set to decline 2.9 percent, while precious metal prices will increase almost 2 percent. The 2013 commodity market outlook is subject to a number of risks. In regards to crude oil, global supply risks remain from ongoing political unrest in the Middle East. A major supply cutoff could limit supplies and result in prices spiking above US$150/bbl. For metals, prices depend importantly on economic conditions in China, which accounts for almost half of global metal consumption. Should conditions there deteriorate, metal prices could decline substantially. Weather is a key risk for agricultural commodities. Given historically low stocks, a major adverse weather event would induce sharp increases in maize prices. Wheat prices may come under upward pressure as well. In contrast, better-supplied rice and oilseed markets face limited upside price risks.

Detalhes

  • Autor

    Baffes,John

  • Data do documento

    2013/01/01

  • TIpo de documento

    Documento de Trabalho

  • No. do relatório

    75059

  • Nº do volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • País

    Mundo,

  • Região

    Regiões Mundiais,

  • Data de divulgação

    2013/02/05

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Nome do documento

    Commodity market outlook, January 2013

  • Palavras-chave

    oil;metal price;wheat;oil price;international energy agency;edible oil;increase in energy price;west texas intermediate;crude oil price increase;food price;agricultural commodity;crude oil production;crude oil consumption;world price;maize price;energy conversion process;commodity price boom;measure of volatility;food price volatility;wheat price;emerging economy;Emerging economies;domestic price;precious metal;copper price;raw material price;capital market activity;adverse weather conditions;effect of price;palm oil price;negative supply shock;agricultural commodity price;price of gold;agricultural price index;investments in agriculture;energy intensive industries;types of energy;types of fuel;degrees of freedom;sovereign debt crisis;economic growth rate;food price variability;summer heat wave;compressed natural gas;natural gas supply;impact on price;fats and oil;impact on market;crude oil demand;nuclear power generation;price of oil;high oil price;commodity price movements;world war ii;world oil demand;energy information administration;domestic food prices;natural gas production;grain price;spare capacity;natural rubber;energy density;aluminum price;price risk;global supply;price change;oil supply;price decline;cotton price;rice price;supply side;export ban;production cost;nominal price;oil inventory;fertilizer price;industrial commodity;wheat yield;oil import;production capacity;consumption growth;political instability;political unrest;upward pressure;weak demand;nickel price;drought conditions;gold price;forecast period;marginal production;Trade Policies;Trade Policy;horizontal drilling;stainless steel;global demand;transport industry;demand growth;financial crisis;high volatility;food commodity;price transmission;Exchange Rates;rice production;dollar term;home countries;home country;timber product;trade center;marketing cost;price drop;cocoa price;efficiency improvement;input price;grain supply;synthetic rubber;tire production;increased supply;rubber prices;insurance companies;environmental pressure;efficiency gain;federal reserve;vehicle transport;atmospheric pressure;Fiscal Expansion;import demand;wheat crop;southern hemisphere;crop production;bus fleet;summer drought;food basket;high energy;energy market;commercial space;high commodity;grain consumption;market condition;food market;global production;domestic consumption;income elasticity;commodity group;long-term perspective;Population Growth;output growth;wheat market;copper production;tea prices;price floor;financial literature;pipe network;distribution network;price differential;euro zone;energy security;price ratio;decline of prices;warehouse finance;skilled labor;Civil War;induced demand;water contamination;ecological impact;public concern;crude production;net growth;trade arrangement;petroleum industry;sample period;price spike;internal disputes;hydraulic fracture;oil capacity;payment mechanism;technological change;dry condition;production increase;hot weather;deep water;resource constraint;energy equivalent;downward pressure;oil exploration;baseline scenario;price rise;fuel mix;physical property;subsidy limit;biofuel production;measure of use;equity price;bond purchase;oil sand;export quota;copper mine;price ceiling;large-scale investment;production target;pig iron;bilateral trade;commodity market;agricultural market;prices increase;world market;maize production;wildfires increase;monetary policy;labor dispute;environmental issue;global export;mining industry;percent change;professional establishment;flood damage;energy cost;new guinea;new caledonia;grain production;rice yield;

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