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How large conflicts subside : evidence from Indonesia (Inglês)

The last two decades have witnessed an extraordinary spate of literature on large-scale subnational conflicts. Scholars have for the most part concentrated on why violent conflicts begin. As a consequence, we know a great deal about the outbreak of civil wars and riots. Considerably less attention has been paid to how and why large conflicts subside. There is, of course, a growing literature on how civil wars end and why they recur. However, such studies have tended to conceptualize periods of civil war and peace as dichotomous states. This prevents consideration of the forms of violence that often emerge in Post-conflict situations. The so–called peaceful phase can also have a lot of violence, though such violence may fall short of a full–fledged civil war. Stated differently, temporal variation in patterns of communal violence of one kind escalation of small incidents into large scale violence, or transformation of Sparks into Fires, has been extensively studied, but how and why large-scale violence subsides space remains, on the whole, inadequately understood. As a consequence, we know little about how spatial units marked by large–scale and or extended riots move towards relative peace, and what prevents reescalation. This paper turns its gaze towards the second kind of temporal variation: how sites of large-scale violence move towards a phase of substantially lower violence. Our materials come from Indonesia, where several provinces experienced grotesque violence after the fall of President Suharto and the collapse of the New Order (1965–1997). The period of high violence lasted roughly from 1998 through 2003. Since then, violence has continued to occur but has declined in intensity and scale. Provinces caught in highly destructive violence have moved to a phase where large-scale violence is largely absent. Small-scale violence has continued to occur frequently, often taking on new forms. Furthermore, areas previously affected by high levels of violence continue to harbor specific vulnerabilities. The rest of the paper is divided into five sections. First, the authors describe the new National Violence Monitoring System (NVMS) dataset, perhaps the largest subnational dataset of its kind anywhere in the world. Following this, Section three provides a descriptive analysis of the initial post–Suharto violence. Section four presents the main features of the new phase of lower violence that has emerged since 2003. Section five explains how and why this new phase has been maintained, with a primary focus on the changing responses of security forces to incidents of violence. Section six concludes.

Detalhes

  • Autor

    Barron,Patrick John, Jaffrey,Sana, Varshney,Ashutosh

  • Data do documento

    2014/07/01

  • TIpo de documento

    Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada)

  • No. do relatório

    107871

  • Nº do volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • País

    Indonésia,

  • Região

    Leste Asiático e Pacífico,

  • Data de divulgação

    2016/08/17

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Nome do documento

    How large conflicts subside : evidence from Indonesia

  • Palavras-chave

    form of violence;impact of violence;types of violence;episodes of violence;post conflict period;asian financial crisis;average annual death;palm oil plantation;quality control procedure;Civil War;communal violence;high frequency;local election;Violent Conflict;communal conflict;building damage;security forces;violent incidents;land dispute;total deaths;annual fatality;violent crime;religious violence;damaged buildings;temporal variation;ethnic violence;property damage;electoral violence;democratic transition;electoral disputes;homicide rate;peace agreement;fatality rate;death toll;empirical analysis;temporal pattern;State Security;geographic spread;government service;private company;political consensus;global assessment;violent reaction;Political Violence;religious group;ongoing violence;concentration levels;Land Ownership;research study;resource distribution;injured person;national ones;source selection;political bias;political affiliation;institutional change;police violence;multiple dimension;geographic area;bomb blast;level of change;nationwide survey;village head;religious affiliations;religious tension;population figures;political uncertainty;baseline data;transition period;accurate information;civil society;Sexual Assault;economic crisis;news source;political actor;social context;worst outcomes;power relation;social change;policy suggestions;criminal activity;steep decline;database records;rebel group;religious ones;political society;significant threat;physical damage;enforcement agency;data gaps;political context;political institution;political stability;political competition;peace accord;political will;

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