The Union of Comoros remains at moderate risk of external debt distress, but its space to absorb shocks is “limited.” All debt burden indicators exhibit a continual upward trend, with the PV of debt-to-export approaching its threshold at the end of the assessment horizon (2029) under the baseline scenario. (Thresholds reflect “medium” capacity to carry debt). The reduced space to absorb shocks reflects the taking on of a large new loan, a downward revision of projected exports in line with lower export prices and impacts of Cyclone Kenneth on debt accumulation. Shock scenarios indicate vulnerability to a deterioration of export performance, natural disasters, and exchange rate instability. Comoros’ overall risk of debt distress remains moderate, given that domestic debt is expected to remain minimal. The authorities need to strengthen policies to improve macroeconomic performance including by making faster progress on domestic resource mobilization and broadening the export base. The authorities should proceed cautiously on taking up any new debt and may wish to largely avoid new non-concessional debt.
Detalhes
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Data do documento
2019/08/31
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TIpo de documento
Documento de Trabalho
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No. do relatório
142555
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Nº do volume
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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País
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Região
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Data de divulgação
2019/10/11
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Nome do documento
Union of Comoros - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis : August 2019
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Palavras-chave
debt service; arab bank for economic development in africa; contingent liability; contingent liabilities; natural disaster; real gdp; alternative scenarios; public debt; public sector debt; primary balance; nominal interest rate; debt-creating flow; Public and Publicly Guaranteed; commodity price; real interest rate; vulnerability to natural disasters; nominal depreciation; grace period; export ratio; debt to export ratio; real exchange rate depreciation; primary deficit; domestic debt; current account deficit; guaranteed debt; dollar term; social security fund; debt sustainability analysis; exchange rate change; total external debt; total public debt; exchange rate instability; risk of debt; domestic resource mobilization; external debt sustainability; short-term debt; financing need; inflation rate; debt relief; domestic borrowing; domestic financial market; exchange rate stability; debt sustainability framework; export of goods; electricity generation plant; commodity price shock; debt management capacity; exchange rate projections; macroeconomic and fiscal; rate of growth; private sector debt; change in arrears; public sector borrowing; Effective interest rate; fixed interest rate; extra budgetary fund; category of debt; private external debt; real growth rate; private investment rate; natural disaster shocks
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