This report highlights how the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis has impacted Nigeria’s economy. In 2020, Nigeria’s economy is expected to experience its deepest recession since the 1980s due to the COVID-19-related disruptions, notably lower oil prices and remittances, enhanced risk aversion in global capital markets, and mobility restrictions. In the baseline scenario—which assumes further macroeconomic reforms and a gradual recovery in oil prices—Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020, growing modestly by 1.1 percent in 2021, and then recovering gradually towards the estimated population growth rate of 2.6 percent. With the rate of economic growth remaining below the population growth rate, per-capita incomes would continue declining and better full-time jobs will be much harder to find. This edition of the Nigeria Development Update takes stock of the recently implemented reforms and proposes policy options to both mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and foster a resilient, sustainable, and inclusive recovery. Managing the current crisis while strengthening the institutional and policy framework will require carefully sequenced reforms implemented over the immediate- and near-term. Robust mitigation and recovery policies would be based on five pillars: 1. Managing the domestic spread of COVID-19 until a vaccine is distributed; 2. Enhancing macroeconomic management to boost investor confidence; 3. Safeguarding and mobilizing revenues; 4. Reprioritizing public spending to protect critical development expenditures; and 5. Supporting economic activity and access to services and providing relief for poor and vulnerable communities.
Detalhes
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Autor
Joseph-Raji,Gloria Aitalohi, Saldarriaga Noel,Miguel Angel, Hernandez Ore,Marco Antonio, Timmis,Emilija, Ogebe,Joseph Orinya, Rostom,Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick, Cortes,Mariano, Kojima,Masami, Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa, Jenq,Christina, Lain,Jonathan William, Vishwanath,Tara, Adhikari,Samik, Mohammed,Muderis Abdulahi, Okunmadewa,Foluso, Raju,Dhushyanth, Belay,Tekabe Ayalew, Chisaka,Noel, Pradhan,Elina, Olugbile,Michael Opeyemi, Ajiboye,Ayodeji Gafar, Ezire,Onoriode, Okunola,Olumide Olaolu, De Simone,Martin Elias, Mai,Thanh Thi, Savchenko,Yevgeniya, Mohammed,Aisha Garba, Adekola,Olatunde Adetoyese, Dahal,Mahesh, Vaillant,Julia, Brudevold-Newman,Andrew Peter, Copley,Amy Elizabeth, Fashogbon,Ayodele Emmanuel, Sahay,Abhilasha
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Data do documento
2020/12/01
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TIpo de documento
Report
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No. do relatório
154920
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Nº do volume
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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País
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Região
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Data de divulgação
2020/12/10
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Nome do documento
Rising to the Challenge : Nigeria's COVID Response
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Palavras-chave
inflation; federal government of nigeria; small and medium enterprise; social safety net program; oil price; Below the Poverty Line; total number of death; currency in circulation; t-bill rate; economic participation for women; closing gender gap; social protection system; high inflation; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; low oil price; value added tax; increase in prices; electricity tariff; foreign direct investment; financial sector development; consumer price index; access to farm; exchange rate premium; crude oil price; financial sector stability; essential health care; information and communication; social investment program; barrels per day; pace of decline; global economic recovery; behavior of bank; agricultural extension service; Social Safety Nets; expansionary monetary policy; human capital accumulation; value of oil; lower oil price; population growth rate; foreign exchange rate; balance of payment; financial market participant; oils and fat; impact on price; essential health services; investments in infrastructure; global capital market; poor rural household; low poverty rate; decline in remittance; case fatality rate; expectations of inflation; household food insecurity; power sector reform; price per barrel; household survey data; disease control program; working age people; provision of liquidity; stream of revenue; social protection program; government revenue; food price; real gdp; Labor migration; investor confidence; land border; value chain; risk aversion; global context; household head; border closure; oil sector; gasoline subsidy; vulnerable communities
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