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Adjustment experience and growth prospects of the semi-industrial economies (Inglês)

This paper presents an analytical framework for quantifying the relative importance of demand management (absorption) and structural adjustment (expenditure and output switching between tradeable and non-tradeable goods, and accelerated growth of output) in the adjustment process. The experience of forty-two developing countries in adjusting to adverse developments in the international economy during the mid-1970s is analyzed using this framework. The analysis indicates that those countries which accelerated growth of traded goods output and integrated their economies more closely with the world economy were able to adjust to the deterioration in the external environment with the least disruption of their growth and pursuit of broader development objectives. Short-term measures were most effective when accompanied by restructuring of a longer-term nature based on shifts in resource use to production of tradeable goods. That the SICs were on average able to adjust in this way to a greater extent than other non-oil developing countries was related to their already more advanced economic structure and flexibility, their generally greater creditworthiness, and their greater access to external capital.

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