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Global Economic Prospects : Darkening Skies (Inglês)

The outlook for the global economy has darkened. International trade and investment have softened, trade tensions remain elevated, and some large emerging market and developing economies have experienced substantial financial market pressures. Against this challenging backdrop, EMDE growth is expected to stall at 4.2 percent in 2019. Downside risks have become more acute and include the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and an escalation of trade disputes. Debt vulnerabilities in emerging market and developing economies, particularly low-income countries, have increased. More frequent severe weather events would raise the possibility of large swings in international food prices, which could deepen poverty. In this di1cult environment, it is of paramount importance for emerging market and developing economies to rebuild policy bu2ers while laying a stronger foundation for future growth by boosting human capital, promoting trade integration, and addressing the challenges associated with informality. This edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the challenges associated with the presence of large informal sectors in EMDEs and policy options to address informality; a box on the remarkable decline in EMDE inflation over the past decades; and two essays, on rising debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries (LICs) and the implications of large food price spikes for poverty.


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    Global Economic Prospects : Darkening Skies

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    inflation; widespread poverty; advanced economy; constant elasticity of substitution; Micro and Small Enterprises; bank for international settlement; small and medium size enterprise; information and communication technology; efficient allocation of resource; access to international market; Fragility, Conflict, and Violence; constant elasticity of transformation; computable general equilibrium model; consumer price inflation; decline in inflation; consumer price index; monetary policy framework; monetary policy regime; savings and investment; inflation targeting framework; global value chain; financial market development; fiscal policy framework; current account deficit; global economic prospect; global financial crisis; purchasing power parity; linear expenditure system; food price volatility; Poverty & Inequality; gross domestic product; distribution of inflation; rate of inflation; import price index; global food prices; source income; total external debt; severe weather events; international food prices; source of income; public sector efficiency; producer price index; control of inflation; government policy response; foreign exchange market; incentive to save; vector autoregression model; foreign currency reserve; private sector debt; bilateral exchange rate; burden of adjustment; foreign direct investment; privileges and immunity; exchange rate movement; financial market volatility; global factor; Learning and Innovation Credit; output growth



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