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South Asia - Investment decision making in hydropower : decision tree case study of the upper Arun hydropower project and Koshi basin hydropower development in Nepal (Inglês)

The South Asia region requires major new energy resources to support its development goals. Hydropower development, especially in mountainous areas, is a largely untapped resource for low carbon energy. This is a serious concern in countries like Nepal where hydropower provides over 90 percent of the current electricity production and which have ambitious plans to develop hydropower resources in the future. Hydropower production is affected by climate variability, and local governments are not able to provide clear guidance on screening and mitigation measures to hydropower developers. The articulation of a programmatic approach to assessing and managing climate risks in the context of other risks for hydropower investments is the goal of this document. The approach described is drawn from the decision tree developed by the water global practice with the support of the water partnership program and the decision making under uncertainty initiative led by the office of lead economist, climate change. This report describes the programmatic approach and illustrates its application with a case study of hydropower development in Nepal. Chapter one presents programmatic approach to assessing climate risks to hydropower investments in South Asia. Chapter two describes the methodology for the programmatic approach. Chapter three introduces the context for the case study, the energy sector of Nepal. Chapter four presents the application of the approach to the upper Arun hydropower project (UAHP). Chapter five presents the basin-scale analysis. The conclusions from the application are discussed in chapter six.

Detalhes

  • Autor

    Karki,Pravin

  • Data do documento

    2015/06/17

  • TIpo de documento

    Documento de Trabalho

  • No. do relatório

    AUS11077

  • Nº do volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • País

    Sul da Ásia,

  • Região

    Sul da Ásia,

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Nome do documento

    South Asia - Investment decision making in hydropower : decision tree case study of the upper Arun hydropower project and Koshi basin hydropower development in Nepal

  • Palavras-chave

    dry season;vulnerability to climate change;assessment of climate risks;evolution of climate change;access to energy service;risks of climate change;access to electricity service;impact of climate change;consumption do;sensitivity to climate change;access to grid electricity;climate change risk management;Hydropower;decision tree;hydropower development;climate change projections;climate data analysis;Climate Risk Assessment;climate change analysis;hydropower investment;terms of performance;source income;climate change response;modern energy service;high sediment load;global climate model;per capita income;development of hydropower;power sector reform;international development community;regional power market;long-term climate change;assessment of risk;water resource infrastructure;managing climate risk;source of income;portfolio of investment;agricultural water supply;dry season production;net present value;types of energy;annual electricity production;increase in capital;annual mean temperature;annual mean precipitation;export of goods;wet season;hydropower production;load shedding;Programmatic Approach;Disaster Risk;deep uncertainty;dam site;River basin;installed capacity;energy generation;Energy Sector;environmental performance;electricity price;rural area;Power Generation;grid extension;hydropower potential;river flow;environmental flow;climate station;climate variability;infrastructure planning;financial risk;climate science;government planners;model result;vulnerability assessment;peak load;catchment area;warmer temperatures;energy investment;average values;Population Growth;hydropower generation;simulation model;infrastructure portfolio;glacier cover;carbon energy;hydropower developer;scientific articles;electricity shortage;hydropower scheme;limited capacity;energy crisis;construction cost;efficient portfolio;generation plant;investment portfolio;flood alleviation;existing dam;access road;peak power;long-term strategy;natural endowment;public resource;mountainous region;government subsidy;distribution network;energy development;mountainous area;sensitivity analysis;job opportunity;job opportunities;fundamental science;financial resource;traditional methods;mountain glacier;mitigation measure;water infrastructure;climate factors;data mining;steep slope;hydrologic modeling;improved information;off-grid electrification;analytical techniques;multilateral basis;external expert;conceptual framework;import item;fuel import;framework agreement;hydro installation;integrated system;maximum demand;excess energy;climate information;extreme conditions;glacial melt;applicable law;temperature effect;investment appraisal;precipitation change;existing reservoirs;hydropower reservoirs;hydrologic response;climate scenario;hydropower plant;average performance;temperature change;efficiency result;dam operation;energy objective;domestic demand;hydropower system;economic model;basin scale;balanced portfolios;stakeholder discussions;glacier area;performance metrics;subsidiary right;investment alternative;hydropower sector;emission scenario;transmission line;affordable electricity;climate resilience;export revenue;climate uncertainty;paradigm shift;partnership framework;future event;regional cooperation;climate stress;tax policy;solar farm;generation capacity;energy performance;extreme poverty;uncertainty analysis;robustness analysis;water year;satellite observations;monthly data;model calibration;daily temperature;seismic activity;stakeholder need;peak demand;living standard;quantitative analysis;Electricity Market;glacier melt;macroeconomic impact;climate response;creating job;information science;large hydropower;national energy;significant loss;

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