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Credit composition, output composition, and external balances (Inglês)

This paper builds on recent research examining the impact of finance on economic outcomes. Specifically, it asks whether credit extended to households and firms has an impact on the share of exports in gross domestic product and on the trade balance. The analysis finds that although household credit is not positively related to export shares or trade balances, firm credit is significantly related to both. The relationship with export shares is particularly strong and robust. Higher shares of credit going to firms means a higher export share in gross domestic product and stronger trade balances (any effect of credit on imports is subsumed by the larger effect on exports). Household credit has a negative or insignificant relationship with the trade balance and the share of exports in gross domestic product. Credit may also affect the choice between types of goods produced domestically, not just whether they are produced for export or domestic consumption. The paper finds that household credit has a negative relationship with the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product. Firm credit is positively associated with the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product, while the share of services does not seem to be affected by either.

Detalhes

  • Autor

    Islam,Roumeen

  • Data do documento

    2017/06/01

  • TIpo de documento

    Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas

  • No. do relatório

    WPS8082

  • Nº do volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • País

    Mundo,

  • Região

    Regiões Mundiais,

  • Data de divulgação

    2017/06/01

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Nome do documento

    Credit composition, output composition, and external balances

  • Palavras-chave

    trade balance;export share;foreign direct investment;terms of trade;gross domestic product;financial system development;financial sector activity;share of export;impact of credit;financial sector development;finance and growth;consumer price index;import of goods;international market force;secondary school enrolment;export of goods;annex annex;aggregate productivity growth;capital market transaction;instrumental variable;current account deficit;Housing and Land;innovation and growth;misallocation of resources;global financial crisis;stock market development;asset price boom;legal origin;credit growth;religious composition;Exchange Rates;external balance;fixed effect;average data;total credit;financial openness;commercial code;real credit;fitted value;consumption smoothing;commodity exporter;credit boom;regression line;explanatory variable;productive sector;financial corporation;banking development;negative relationship;enterprise credit;credit provision;net export;banking crisis;domestic consumption;financial activities;positive impact;External Finance;comparative advantage;positive relationship;Manufacturing;financial asset;institutional context;summary statistic;empirical literature;Company Law;differential impact;cross border;export growth;macroprudential regulation;macroeconomic outcome;capital flow;aggregate outcome;cost risk;individual risk;domestic demand;panel data;productive use;Banking Regulation;risk sharing;firm level;theoretical model;external financing;financial constraint;trade pattern;International Trade;empirical research;credit ratios;financial boom;recovery period;financial inclusion;shareholder protection;negative effect;financial market;empirical work;advanced economy;credit market;mortgage credit;human capital;income inequality;Macroeconomic Stability;mature market;financial liberalization;financial deepening;supervisory system;nonlinear effect;real output;research assistance;high share;import share;open access;development policy;institutional framework;economic volatility;empirical economics;regulatory capacity;housing finance;government play;subsidy system;excessive borrowing;household access;correlation coefficient;global liquidity;common law;net inflows;foreign liability;foreign asset;managing risk;robustness check;short period;

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