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Brazil - Current economic position and prospects (Vol. 5) : Manufacturing industry (Inglês)

The mission's value and quantity projections for exports, along with the data relating to the recent past. With respect to coffee, sugar, cocoa, meat, rice, corn, iron ore and manganese ore, which account for about 85 percent of the total value of exports, the mission has made explicit assumptions regarding export prices and quantities. Between 1950-514 and `462-63, the Santos 4 price on the New York market declined from an average of nearly 60 cents to about 314 cents. Although the price rose sharply in 1964 because of frost and fire damage in Brazil, world imports showed no change from the level of the previous year because it is believed that roasters bought heavily, expecting the price to continue upward. The projection of cotton exports is based on the following assumption: a price of 25 cents per lb., i.e., $590/ton f.o.b. throughout, roughly equivalent to the current price level and that over the projection period the rate of growth in world consumption and trade would tend to decelerate to the rate of world population growth (approximately 1.7 percent per year). The limit to the future expansion of cot-ton exports would not be the domestic production potential but international demand, and Brazil should be able to maintain its recent share of that demand, which has been about 7-8 percent in recent years. For Bahia cocoa beans the mission has assumed a price of 20 cents per pound or $440 per metric ton on the assumption that there is no international cocoa agreement by 1970. If the Producers' Alliance Agreement, which is currently effective, remains in force by 1970 and is able to maintain a price of approximately 21.4 cents per pound or $472 per metric ton, the mission's estimate will be on the low side. A corresponding price for cocoa butter may be, approximately $1,000 per ton when beans are around $440 a ton.




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