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Cities in Europe and Central Asia : a shifting story of urban growth and decline (Inglês)

This report is organized in four sections. Section one provides an overview of the context in which many ECA cities consolidated. This section includes a review of the key factors that shaped the urban systems of ECA, including a discussion of the implication of urbanizing under planned economies and a discussion of recent demographic trends (migration and fertility). This section also includes an overview of the contribution of the urban sector to ECA’s economy and the linkages between urbanization and economic development. Section two zooms into ECA’s urban systems and describes emerging trends in population and economic density using the Cities in ECA database. Among the observed trends, is the emergence of two opposing patterns in ECA’s urban system: one of (population) growth and one of decline. Section three takes a closer look at cities, comparing winners to losers, and parses through underlying factors that could explain their relative position. Finally, section four touches on the policy implications of the report’s empirical findings, highlighting how other countries and cities have managed decline and identifies potential follow-up work. The report is based on a unique city-level database that covers more than 5,000 cities in the region. The report does not intend to provide country specific or in-depthassessment at the sub-regional level, does not cover other angles of interest (firm-level analysis, household-level analysis) or provide an in-depth analysis of policy implications. These are both limitations, and potential follow-up activities. However, the report is complemented by 17 country-level snapshots, which describe in detail country specific trends.


  • Autor

    Restrepo Cadavid,Paula, Cineas,Grace, Quintero, Luis E., Zhukova,Sofia

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    Documento de Trabalho

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  • País

    Europa e Ásia Central,

  • Região

    Europa e Ásia Central,

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  • Nome do documento

    Cities in Europe and Central Asia : a shifting story of urban growth and decline

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    countries with low fertility rates;public expenditure need;public expenditure on education;demand for health services;gross domestic product data;urban population;decline in fertility;net migration rate;relationship between population;concentration of population;economies of scale;increase in capital;term of productivity;per capita cost;increase in labor;delivery of service;engine of growth;positive net migration;growth in population;local municipal revenues;number of teachers;concentration of poverty;high population growth;fiscal transfer system;water retention time;consequences of population;country economic performance;district heating network;oil refining industry;births per woman;destination of migrant;scale of migration;number of migrants;global fertility rate;health care service;working age population;revenue from taxes;higher education institution;health care benefit;tax on consumption;return on capital;tax on capital;urban system;planned economy;population decline;Demographic Transition;demographic trend;city population;market potential;urban growth;urbanization level;Population Density;long-term care;housing price;spatial concentration;population data;agglomeration economy;urban sector;global economy;aging population;South East;replacement level;economic sector;fiscal imbalance;policy option;public good;Public Services;empirical analysis;median income;population concentration;measure of use;internal mobility;high urbanization;Public Goods;economic shock;property value;demographic factor;economic specialization;light intensity;local infrastructure;small cities;congestion cost;positive relationship;transport cost;policy tool;fiscal revenue;local budget;project control;positive externality;knowledge spillover;working life;remote area;increase productivity;institutional barrier;infrastructure expansion;housing affordability;administrative boundary;fiscal implication;lorenz curve;cumulative population;smaller number;demographic challenge;population group;middle-income household;international business;spatial segregation;urban decay;financial intermediation;natural population;Job Creation;Labor Market;Population Aging;central planning;aging society;path dependence;transition period;massive privatization;steep decline;empirical evidence;demographic shift;urban concentration;housing ownership;cultural homelands;retirement age;applicable law;education service;Education Services;urban transport;urban level;pension system;government revenue;transport mode;public transportation mode;Population Change;primary source;return migrant;healthier lives;observed change;scientific facility;fiscal stress;payroll contribution;old age;management policy;industrial specialization;large-scale infrastructure;industrial complex;social infrastructure;coal extraction;agricultural center;power engineering;education spending;technological advancement;subsidiary right;low-income household;large enterprise;international competition;population movement;important change;economic integration;urban poor;hospital bed;navigable waterways;land vegetation;Property tax;annual precipitation;housing supply;international border;housing stock;municipal expenditure;commercial activity;potential implication;built infrastructure;open economy;spatial resolution;demographic change;input use;fiscal efficiency;average change;criminal activity;net impact;violent crime;empirical findings;capital revenue;real gdp;positive correlation;abandoned property;firm-level analysis;hot spot;local policy;city administration;database information;old-age pension;temporal evolution;public education;age structure;agricultural activity;urban sprawl;taxable income;local good;Nuclear Disaster;fiscal balance;human capital;Anthropogenic Disasters;net effect;spatial analysis;big city;external shock;secondary city;model specification;market economy;transferable skill;positive impact;competition effect;total output;socio-economic context;standard error;retirement period;city revenue



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