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Gone with the storm : rainfall shocks and household well-being in Guatemala (Inglês)

This paper investigates the causal consequences of Tropical Storm Agatha (2010) the strongest tropical storm ever to strike Guatemala since rainfall records have been kept on household welfare. The analysis reveals substantial negative effects, particularly among urban households. Per capita consumption fell by 12.6 percent, raising poverty by 5.5 percentage points (an increase of 18 percent). The negative effects of the shock span other areas of human welfare. Households cut back on food consumption (10 percent or 43 to 108 fewer calories per person per day) and reduced expenditures on basic durables. These effects are related to a drop in income per capita (10 percent), mostly among salaried workers. Adults coped with the shock by increasing their labor supply (on the intensive margin) and simultaneously relying on the labor supply of their children and withdrawing them from school. Impact heterogeneity is associated with the intensity of the shock, food price inflation, and the timing of Agatha with respect to the harvest cycle of the main crops. The results are robust to placebo treatments, household migration, issues of measurement error, and different samples. The negative effects of the storm partly explain the increase in poverty seen in urban Guatemala between 2006 and 2011, which national authorities and analysts previously attributed solely to the collateral effects of the global financial crisis.


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    Baez,Javier E., Lucchetti,Leonardo Ramiro, Genoni,Maria Eugenia, Salazar,Mateo

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    Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada)

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    América Latina e Caribe,

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    Gone with the storm : rainfall shocks and household well-being in Guatemala

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    calories per person per day; higher incidence of poverty; population living in poverty; short period of time; household consumption per capita; effective risk management strategies; Food Price Index; female labor force participation; affected households; weather station; standard deviation; per capita consumption; fall in consumption; urban household; precipitation anomalies; child labor force; global financial crisis; standard error; labor supply; vulnerability to poverty; extreme poverty line; coefficient of variation; parameter of interest; household head; natural disaster; inequality of opportunity; extreme weather event; hours of labor; loss in consumption; informal housing market; reproduction of inequality; expenditure on food; Upward Economic Mobility; linear probability model; effect on consumption; Demand For Education; negative income shock; calories per day; random measurement error; social protection policy; years of schooling; children miss school; consumption price index; state of emergency; human capital formation; quality of education; cut back expenditures; infant mortality rate; health and nutrition; national poverty rate; investments in education; national poverty line; marital status; municipality level; reduction in consumption; rural poor household; Access to Electricity; rural area; negative effect; official poverty line; rainfall mean; school participation; sugar cane; point estimate; moderate poverty; hourly wage; empirical model; human welfare; school attendance; treatment effect; excessive precipitation; agricultural cycle; household income; household welfare; poverty headcount; summary statistic; durable good; panel data; empirical result; Durable goods; development study; excessive rainfall; development policy; children of ages; food expenditure; fixed effect; poverty incidence; tropical storm; Health Service; vertical line; geographic area; rainfall pattern; consumption aggregate; public transfer; consumption basket; harvesting season; household expenditure; attending school; general equilibrium; child growth; monthly expenditure; research design; Gender Gap; planting season; natural risks; sampling units; income inequality; shock variable; empirical analysis; anecdotal evidence; endogenous migration; sample selection; male worker; dietary energy; consumption datum; measuring inequality; income components; urban sample; Labor Market; econometric result; critical infrastructure; socioeconomic impact; collateral effect; rainfall data; temperature data; agricultural household; consumption smoothing; heavy burden; geographical location; open access; poverty persistence; income diversification; institutional system; geographic location; volcanic eruption; rainfall uncertainty; income risk; energy subsidies; natural hazard; high vulnerability; hurricane risk; explanatory factors; occupational choice; treatment group; visual inspection; data limitation; tropical cyclone; policy option; subsistence constraints; Fiscal policies; fiscal policy; agricultural economics; work income; food aid; managing risk; international agriculture; resource economics; consumption insurance; survey questions; inclusive growth; household data; rural family; Population Aging; supply shock; development pattern; annual production; maize crop; poverty effect; market concentration; food health; Higher Education; consumption component; academic achievement; children's nutrition; simulation approach; family living; surface area; welfare implication; socioeconomic variables; child nutrition; displaced people; earnings inequality; job opportunities; empirical evidence; job opportunity; social policy; middle class; domestic production; migration analysis; welfare measurement; empirical findings; Poverty Measurement; educational achievement; social policies; energy reform; long-term effect; wage earnings; fertility transition; econometric specification; hydrological characteristic; buffer stock; flood data; empirical specification



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