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Tajikistan - Agricultural sector risk assessment (Inglês)

Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of more severe, exogenous shocks outside agriculture or outside the country, which require a broader response. Failure to respond adequately to these more severe risks leads to a perpetual cycle of ‘shock-recovery-shock’, which reinforces poverty traps and compromises long-term growth. The agriculture sector’s exposure to production and price risk is increasing. Climate change is increasing production risks in the short to medium-term by increasing the frequency and severity of droughts and floods and in the longer-term by reducing the availability of water for irrigation due to accelerated glacial melt. The modernization and commercialization of agricultural production and processing, which is critical for sector growth, also raises the sector’s exposure to price risk at a time of high volatility on international markets for agricultural commodities. An effective response to these risks requires a broader, more integrated approach to risk management than the current system of ex-ante, public sector activity associated with crop and livestock disease and ad hoc, ex-post emergency responses to local disasters. Measures to strengthen risk mitigation will need to be mainstreamed into sector development and investment programs, additional human and financial resources will need to be allocated to the public institutions responsible for ex-ante and ex-post risk management, and the potential for transfer (insurance) mechanisms will need to be clarified and developed where feasible. Given the limited human and financial resources available for public sector activity, a clear sense of the priorities for agriculture risk management is also required, together with a balanced view of the respective roles of public and private sector stakeholders.


  • Autor

    Broka,Sandra, Giertz, Åsa, Christensen,Garry N., Hanif,Charity Worsham, Rasmussen,Debra L.

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    Documento de Trabalho

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  • País

    Ásia Central,

  • Região

    Europa e Ásia Central,

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  • Nome do documento

    Tajikistan - Agricultural sector risk assessment

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    regional livestock;annual mean temperature;vulnerability to climate change;drought;crop and livestock;implications of climate change;vegetable and fruit production;international organization for standardization;foot and mouth disease;agricultural production;agriculture sector risk;access to irrigation;agricultural output;coefficient of variation;market information system;risk management instrument;availability of water;fruit and vegetable;public sector activity;price risk;average annual precipitation;water for irrigation;change in precipitation;public financial resource;operation of infrastructure;water supply system;water irrigation;risk management approach;average farm milk;effective risk management;early warning system;number of water;water user group;climate change adaptation;risk management capacity;extreme weather event;climate change model;large flood event;local government authority;loss of crop;framework for risk;quality and quantity;climate change projections;risk management strategy;time of drought;animal health program;Business Enabling Environment;expansion of export;sustainable water use;private sector initiative;animal health system;lack of land;exchange rate movement;local food production;food safety program;private sector stakeholder;production of wheat;lack of water;national food security;natural resource base;food security crisis;international good practice;early warning indicator;investment and development;degradation of water;improved transport infrastructure;access to water;agricultural sector;agricultural commodity;production risk;Civil War;natural disaster;sea level;agricultural land;arable land;risk assessment;production system;sustainable access;Market Intelligence;market knowledge;food insecurity;mountain area;Pasture Management;livestock feed;agricultural market;glacial melt;investment program;cultivated area;household plot;crop production;cotton production;Livestock Production;cereal production;producer price;hot summer;market opportunity;mountain pastures;irrigation water;pump irrigation;constant price;community preparedness;livestock number;cold winter;knowledge exchange;irrigation system;sector output;export product;institutional strengthening;drought cycle;food price;price volatility;severe storms;pasture monitoring;total output;poverty trap;systemic risk;mountainous terrain;agriculture system;livestock insurance;input price;forage crop;improve livestock;supply chain;debt crisis;crop disease;Agricultural Investment;vegetation cover;breeding ground;grazing land;irrigated area;livestock service;crop diversification;Water Shortage;severe hardship;matching grant;optimal risk;high rainfall;irrigation infrastructure;long-term yield;crop protection;budget resource;severe weather;received advice;border area;business relationship;energy infrastructure;cold weather;temperature range;crop loss;insurance product;intense rainfall;export revenue;livestock producer;climatic extremes;agricultural resource;increased investment;insect pest;livestock productivity;commodity price;fiscal position;consultation meeting;aggregate output;policy risk;climatic condition;regional dimension;aggregate value;remittance flow;potato field;investment planning;rainfall variability;food shortage;wheat production;locust control;grain sector;cotton yield;land reform;market linkage;cotton price;climatic risk;cotton area;government view;feed efficiency;regulatory environment;financial service;logistics service;feasibility analysis;export market;arable area;applicable law;subsidiary right;disaster relief;data needs;local disasters;public expenditure;hazard analysis;credit product;non-governmental organization;environmental service;creating markets;outcome indicator;high-risk investment;market efficiency;market development;market survey;product diversity;private value;drought management;crop rotation;market incentive;crop producers;regulatory development;feed production;feed policy;supplementary feed;Water Management



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