Innovations in water management and irrigated agriculture powered water-scarce Middle Eastern economies for millennia. However, as water becomes scarcer because of population growth and economic development, and even more erratic because of climate change, the region’s water security is coming under increasing threat. This report applies an economic model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, to assess the economic impacts of water scarcity for six Middle Eastern countries and also to examine how water-use efficiency improvements and trade can mitigate these impacts. A 20 percent reduction in water supply could decrease GDP by up to 10 percent, compared to 2016 levels. Furthermore, increased water scarcity could reduce labor demand by up to 12 percent and lead to significant land-use changes, including loss of beneficial hydrological services. The report emphasizes how the growing dependence on shared water resources reinforces the need to manage water across boundaries. The message is clear: unless new and transformative policies for sustainable, efficient and cooperative water management are promoted, water scarcity will negatively impact the region’s economic prospects and undermine its human and natural capital.
Detalhes
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Data do documento
2020/09/23
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TIpo de documento
Report
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No. do relatório
153234
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Nº do volume
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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País
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Região
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Data de divulgação
2020/09/27
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Nome do documento
Water in the Balance : The Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Water Scarcity in the Middle East - Summary for Policy Makers
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Palavras-chave
economic impact of climate change; water scarcity; impact of water; crop yield; Sustainable Land and Water Management; water need; changes in land use; loss of crop yields; computable general equilibrium model; efficient use of water; impact of heat stress; impact on crop yields; static computable general equilibrium; agency for international development; vulnerability to climate change; crop yield changes; improvements in water; agricultural activity; demand for labor; role of water; water supplies; producer price index; employment in agriculture; expansion of cropland; change in demand; shared water resource; sustainable development policy; use of wastewater; efficient water use; sustainable water management; water allocation decision; youth unemployment rate; lack of water; water harvesting techniques; reductions in demand; weather station data; global carbon balance; million people; cost of water; working age population; investment in water; regional economic policy; social and environmental; volume of water; loss of forest; transboundary water resource; cooperative water management; access to water; climate change projections; availability of water; change in temperature; change in precipitation; area under cultivation; increase poverty; anthropogenic carbon emissions; total labor force; transboundary water management
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