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Food price spikes, price insulation, and poverty (Inglês)

This paper has two purposes. It first considers the impact on world food prices of the changes in restrictions on trade in staple foods during the 2008 world food price crisis. Those changes -- reductions in import protection or increases in export restraints -- were meant to partially insulate domestic markets from the spike in international prices. The authors find that this insulation added substantially to the spike in international prices for rice, wheat, maize, and oilseeds. As a result, although domestic prices rose less than they would have without insulation in some developing countries, in many other countries they rose more than they would have in the absence of such insulation. The paper's second purpose it to estimate the combined impact of such insulating behavior on poverty in various developing countries and globally. The analysis finds that the actual poverty-reducing impact of insulation is much less than its apparent impact, and that its net effect was to increase global poverty in 2008 by 8 million people, although this increase was not significantly different from zero. Since there are domestic policy instruments, such as conditional cash transfers, that could now provide social protection for the poor far more efficiently and equitably than variations in border restrictions, the authors suggest it is time to seek a multilateral agreement to desist from changing restrictions on trade when international food prices spike.


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    Anderson,Kym, Ivanic,Maros, Martin, Will

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    Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas

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    Regiões Mundiais,

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  • Nome do documento

    Food price spikes, price insulation, and poverty

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    domestic price;global demand for food;concern of policy makers;household expenditure and income;policy point of view;share of world output;international food prices;global poverty;terms of trade;sale of food;Social Safety Nets;conditional cash transfer;elasticity of supply;elasticity of demand;types of reforms;Population and Development;development research group;global food prices;doha development agenda;restrictions on trade;safety net policy;domestic policy instruments;impact of intervention;household real income;agricultural trade barriers;trade and poverty;commodity price stabilization;commodity price change;monte carlo simulation;consumer price index;ad valorem equivalent;reduction of poverty;domestic food prices;standard normal distribution;uruguay round;household survey year;household survey data;reliability of supply;trade policy instrument;safety net measure;poor rural people;cost of administer;local currency terms;purchasing power parity;world price;poverty impact;price rise;food expenditure;standard error;export restrictions;trade restriction;proportional change;rice price;edible oil;observed change;Trade Policies;Social Protection;agricultural economics;export barrier;poverty estimate;poverty change;net effect;export tax;agricultural incentive;weighted average;staple food;household data;trade tax;protection rate;world food;supply elasticity;import protection;proportional increase;exporting country;income source;world development;trade distortion;short period;food staple;border price;alternative policy;price shock;world consumption;price volatility;Economic Policy;producer price;gross expenditures;world market;dairy product;initial price;market price;producer incentive;oilseed price;future price;blue color;multilateral level;targeted subsidy;storage policy;price impact;broad assessment;stock adjustment;inventory level;poverty consequences;effective approach;small country;food share;fish product;apparent success;uniform amount;global production;global supply;industrial country;income supplement;digital information;price spike;vulnerable household;pricing policy;welfare impact;quantity supply;price level;agricultural sale;absolute change;global estimate;global financial;welfare costs;import side;standard deviation;initial tariff;observed increase;government revenue;total consumption;global change;young child;price effect;food product;trade taxation;poor household;factor market;Learning and Innovation Credit;national protection;demand elasticity;farm product;import subsidy;unskilled wage;landless laborer;tariff reduction;international marketplace;net expenditure;upward pressure;multilateral agreement;open access;development policy;household income;domestic transfer;household production;domestic poverty;expenditure pattern;global market;equilibrium condition;color bar;simple model;price analysis;price distortion;wage impact;national university;farm business;consumption measure;border measure;price transmission;loss aversion;income effect;farm household;dynamic path;broken rice;poverty outcome;agricultural distortions;living cost;population mean;binding commitment;important change;export price;consumption pattern;trading partner;agricultural wage;low-income household;agricultural price;crop product;price scenarios;farm produce;Option market;



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