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Global Trade Watch 2018 : Trade Amid Tensions (Inglês)

Global trade growth slowed in 2018 amid a weakening of economic growth in China and the Euro Area and rising trade protectionism. The volume of trade grew by 3.8 percent, down from 5.4 percent in 2017, but has shown signs of reviving in the first quarter of 2019. However, the U.S. tariff increases implemented in early May and China’s response might change the outlook. Trade policy developments are mixed. Restrictive trade measures imposed during 2018 affected 3.8 percent of world merchandise trade, nearly three times the share affected in any of the years since the global financial crisis of 2009. Tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China alone affected 2.0 percent of world merchandise trade in 2018. Ongoing trade tensions affected importers in United States and China significantly. While trade fell in targeted products, prices at the border did not change as compared with non-targeted products. Even though trade in stickier inputs tends to be relatively resilient in the short term, if trade tensions are not resolved, existing global value chains are likely to be disrupted in the longer term. It is in the long-term interest of industrial and developing countries for trade tensions to be resolved through a multilateral approach and World Trade Organization reforms.


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    Constantinescu,Cristina, Mattoo,Aaditya, Ruta,Michele, Maliszewska,Maryla, Osorio-Rodarte,Israel

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    Trade Amid Tensions

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    computable general equilibrium model; Cost, Insurance and Freight; trade tensions; import of product; global value chain; trade policy developments; tariff import; tariff on import; gross domestic product; international trade flows; export of products; effect of trade; consumer price index; prices of product; loss of income; increase tariff; regional trade agreement; purchasing power parity; export of goods; department of agriculture; global supply chain; international trading environment; share of import; global financial crisis; international trade statistic; volume of trade; macroeconomic and fiscal; bilateral trade relations; effect of tariff; percent change; goods trade; intermediate input; import value; global income; trade value; tariff increase; investor confidence; restrictive trade; washing machine; trade volume; trading partner; trade diversion; negative growth; solar panel; import growth; global export; high tariff; merchandise trade; tariff rate; Trade Policies; investment good; product category; tariff line; affected goods; import share; vertical line; local content; export growth; adjustment cost; quantitative restriction; goods export; market price; anti-dumping measure; advanced economy; Emerging economies; emerging economy; safeguard measure; missing data; import measures; countervailing duty; customs procedure; import data; trade elasticity; soybean price; trade relationship; search cost; alternative supplier; vehicle part; telephone sets; business relationship; trading pattern; copper scrap; import demand; export supply; legal reason; binding contract; restrictive measures; import product; increased demand; soybean producer; price decline; export price; global trade; bilateral tariff; world price; domestic producer; foreign producer; trade deficit; imposing tariffs; unilateral liberalization; unilateral preferences; joint product; upper bind; multilateral approach; long-term interest; managed trade; open market; trade performance; trade deal; transportation service; industrial production; trade protectionism; global poverty; global imports; external demand; consumption good; trade development; simulation result; price change; import volume; price decrease; income loss; baseline scenario; domestic demand; diverted trade; real gdp; trade growth; increased imports



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