Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previous expectations. Already robust domestic demand has been supported by some pickup in external demand and the gradual recovery in commodity prices. Fiscal deficits in the major regional economies widened in 2016, prompting some adjustment toward the end of the year in Indonesia and Malaysia. Monetary policies remained accommodative, and credit continued to grow rapidly in most major economies. Inflation is edging up and producer prices are rising quickly as commodity prices increase. Capital outflows intensified toward end-2016 leading to depreciation pressures, but financial markets have since recovered. The growth outlook for 2017–19 remains broadly positive across the region. China is expected to continue its gradual transition to lower, more sustainable growth. In the rest of the region, growth is projected to pick up moderately. Continued buoyancy in domestic demand, including public and increasingly private investment, will be supported by gradually strengthening external demand. Global growth and commodity prices are projected to continue recovering slowly, while global financial conditions tighten gradually. Inflationary pressures should remain contained. In the Pacific Island Countries, maintaining fiscal sustainability needs to remain a focus along with policy reforms in selected sectors, which could prove transformational over the medium term. For fiscal sustainability, efforts to shore up revenues, contain unproductive spending while boosting critical expenditures on health and education, and build up buffers against shocks need to be sustained. There are also opportunities to accelerate growth and boost employment over the longer term. On tourism, promising options include tapping into the Chinese and retiree market, increasing the number of luxury resorts, and encouraging cruise ships to base in the Pacific. Increases in labor mobility, through the expansion of existing agreements and the negotiation of new agreements, complemented by investments in workers’ human capital, could also generate substantial benefits. Higher mobile and internet penetration, complemented by a conducive business environment and the development of a skilled workforce could boost productivity. And income from fisheries could be significantly increased, without threatening the sustainability of the fisheries stock, by broadening participation in cooperative agreements to include East Asian countries with major fishing grounds, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, and ensuring compliance with robust catch limits.
Detalhes
-
Autor
Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T., Kehayova,Vera Vencheva, Moroz,Harry Edmund, Testaverde,Mauro, Cassou,Emilie, Jaffee,Steven M., Ru,Jiang, Stamm,Diane, Adriani,Magda, Ariyapruchya,Kiatipong, Badiani-Magnusson,Reena C, Batsuuri,Davaadalai, Beck,Hans Anand, Castaneda Aguilar,Raul Andres, Chen,Shaohua, Chen,Derek Hung Chiat, Chua,Kevin C., Cruz,Kevin Thomas Garcia, Davading,Somneuk, Demombynes,Gabriel, Dewina,Reno, Dinh,Viet Tuan, Eckardt,Sebastian, Edwards,Kim Alan, Fitrani,Fitria, Freije-Rodriguez,Samuel, Halstead,Imogen Cara, Vu,Linh Hoang, Kida,Mizuho, Kim,Jae Kyun, Knight,David Stephen, Krishnan,Nandini, Kularatne,Chandana, Lain,Jonathan William, Lee,Taehyun, Litwack,John, Luo,Xubei, Ly,Sodeth, Martin, Miguel, Mejia-Mant, Carolina, Mileva,Elitza Alexandrova, Mohib,Saiyed Shabih Ali, Moreno Herrera,Laura Liliana, Munoz Moreno,Rafael, Najdov,Evgenij, Nguyen,Minh Cong, Pan,Lucy, Phimmahasay,Keomanivone, Pimhidzai,Obert, Piza,Sharon Faye Alariao, Purnamasari,Ririn Salwa, Rab,Habib Nasser, Revilla,Julio E., Orton Romero,Carlos Rafael, Teh Sharifuddin,Shakira Binti, Sharma,Manohar, Shiilegmaa,Altantsetseg, Simler,Kenneth, Stephan,David Andrew, Tong,Kimsun, Zin,May Thet, Uochi,Ikuko, Utz,Robert Johann, Wai-Poi,Matthew Grant, Wihardja,Maria Monica, Yang,Judy, Yee Amezaga,Karla Mirari, Zhao,Luan
-
Data do documento
2017/04/01
-
TIpo de documento
Publicação
-
No. do relatório
116330
-
Nº do volume
1
-
Total Volume(s)
1
-
País
-
Região
-
Data de divulgação
2017/06/16
-
Disclosure Status
Disclosed
-
Nome do documento
East Asia and Pacific economic update : sustaining resilience
-
Palavras-chave
Incremental Capital-Output Ratio;Macro Economics & Fiscal Management;Poverty and Equity;finance and markets;commodity price;Active Labor Market Policies;active labor market policy;access to health service;increase consumer price;Growth Elasticity of Poverty;increases in tax rate;total factor productivity growth;quality of public spending;Public and Publicly Guaranteed;domestic demand;external financial conditions;balance of payment;monetary policy;industrial production growth;real estate investment;advanced economy;Haver Analytics;net capital flow;long-term interest rate;change in welfare;emerging market stock;barriers to mobility;government bond yield;real estate sale;real estate loan;exchange rate regime;rapid credit growth;global financial crisis;greenhouse gas emission;purchasing power parity;rice price inflation;external demand;real interest rate;Social Protection Benefits;solomon islands dollar;expenditures on health;foreign private investment;private sector debt;social protection system;source of pollution;trade and investment;government capital expenditure;increase in labor;innovation and learning;social service provision;reallocation of fund;external debt stock;source of financing;emerging market bond;vulnerability to shock;quality of education;regulation and supervision;international good practice;consumer price index;return on asset;natural resource taxation;interest coverage ratio;debt service ratio;dispute resolution mechanism;interest rate policy;total debt stock;personal income tax;commodity price forecast;per capita income;private sector credit;signs of recovery;international labor mobility;privileges and immunity;dollar exchange rate;residential real estate;current account balance;food price inflation;Integrated Pest Management;liquefied natural gas;information and communication;carbon dioxide equivalent;sovereign wealth fund;mutual recognition agreement;foreign direct investment;tons of carbon;commodity exporter;agricultural pollution;Fiscal Sustainability;producer price;global trade;capital outflow;regional economy;medium-term development;financial market;global economy;import growth;infrastructure spending;labor income;banking sector;goods trade;global policy;protectionist pressure;small economy;income growth;sales tax;Capital Inflows;migration corridor;foreign exchange;fiscal deficit;rising inflation;fiscal space;Exchange Rates;Financial Sector;global composite;intraregional trade;external environment;trade integration;rural transportation infrastructure;percent change;financial flow;real gdp;investment growth;policy uncertainty;financial volatility;corporate sector;public debt;public perception;fiscal consolidation;external financing;financial vulnerability;Tax Administration;fiscal framework;tax base;
- Exibir mais
Downloads
COMPLETAR RELATÓRIO
Versão oficial do documento (pode conter assinaturas, etc.)
- PDF oficial
- TXT*
- Total Downloads** :
- Download Stats
-
*A versão do texto é um OCR incorreto e está incluído unicamente em benefício de usuários com conectividade lenta.