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Lao, Peoples Democratic Republic - Joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability analysis 2013 update (Inglês)

Lao P.D.R.~^!!^s risk of debt distress remains moderate. Although all external debt distress indicators remain below the policy-dependent indicative thresholds during the projection period under the baseline scenario, the thresholds are breached in the presence of certain shocks. Compared to last year~^!!^s Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), the PV of external debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is closer to the threshold, leaving few buffers in case of any adverse shock. Also, while debt service ratios remain within the policy-dependent indicative thresholds, primarily because of the high level of concessionality of official borrowing, composition of concessional funds is expected to shift away from grants and towards loans at lower levels of concessionality. Since the country might rely more on loans with commercial terms as it graduates from the low-income status, it will be necessary for the authorities to strengthen fiscal management, upgrade debt and cash management capacity, and scale upwards the country~^!!^s public investment management capacity.

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