Lao P.D.R.~^!!^s risk of debt distress remains moderate. Although all external debt distress indicators remain below the policy-dependent indicative thresholds during the projection period under the baseline scenario, the thresholds are breached in the presence of certain shocks. Compared to last year~^!!^s Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), the PV of external debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is closer to the threshold, leaving few buffers in case of any adverse shock. Also, while debt service ratios remain within the policy-dependent indicative thresholds, primarily because of the high level of concessionality of official borrowing, composition of concessional funds is expected to shift away from grants and towards loans at lower levels of concessionality. Since the country might rely more on loans with commercial terms as it graduates from the low-income status, it will be necessary for the authorities to strengthen fiscal management, upgrade debt and cash management capacity, and scale upwards the country~^!!^s public investment management capacity.
Detalhes
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Data do documento
2013/11/11
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TIpo de documento
Relatório da Diretoria Executiva
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No. do relatório
82835
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Nº do volume
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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País
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Região
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Data de divulgação
2015/04/27
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Nome do documento
Lao, Peoples Democratic Republic - Joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability analysis 2013 update
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Palavras-chave
standard deviation;external debt sustainability;real gdp;external public debt;Public and Publicly Guaranteed;current account deficit;real exchange rate depreciation;grace and maturity period;present value of debt;ratio of debt;external debt service;risk of debt;public sector debt;public sector loans;gdp deflator;nominal interest rate;external debt stock;debt dynamic;total external debt;real interest rate;expansionary fiscal policy;exchange rate change;public investment management;policy and institution;balance of payment;nominal depreciation;projection period;Learning and Innovation Credit;price for energy;commodity price shock;debt management capacity;Effective interest rate;macroeconomic and fiscal;market based economy;private sector debt;public sector borrowing;revenue administration reform;basis of information;consumer price inflation;external debt burden;Public Sector Compensation;central government financing;domestic financial market;capitalization of state;debt sustainability framework;domestic public debt;power purchase agreement;private external debt;exchange rate movement;net present value;external private debt;public debt sustainability;baseline scenario;dollar term;domestic debt;resource sector;export value;external borrowing;primary balance;external financing;fiscal position;financing need;primary deficit;
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