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Turkey agricultural sector model (Inglês)

The Turkey Agricultural Sector Model (TASM) has been developed to: (i) determine if Turkey has a comparative advantage in agriculture and, if so, in which products; (ii) identify changes in cropping patterns under alternative trade policies; and (iii) project production and trade patterns for 1990 under the assumptions that production techniques are using more inputs and giving better yields and that demand structures are adjusted to reflect shifts in consumption patterns due to increase in income. In this respect, the alternative trade scenarios are presented with the assumptions that significant time is allowed from the base year for production to adjust to alternative trade scenarios and technical assumptions, and that quantities shown are indicative of direction rather than absolute magnitude, be it production or trade. First, the model and the base solutions and their validations are discussed. Second, alternative trade policies are presented. Third, projections for 1990 and related assumptions in technological changes and demand structures are discussed. And finally, an alternative formulation of the livestock subsector is presented.

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