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Future Drivers of Growth in Rwanda : Innovation, Integration, Agglomeration, and Competition (Vol. 2) : Overview (Inglês)

Rapid economic growth is Rwanda's overarching development goal— a strategic choice to anchor its long-term vision. Vision 2050 encapsulates this choice with long-term, income-based goals that aim for upper-middle-income status by 2035 and high-income status by 2050. With this vision, Rwanda has aligned itself with the successful East Asian economies that began their development journey with a similar quest for high growth. The prioritization of long-term growth recognizes an important truth—sustained growth does not just happen, especially in a global landscape marked by forces of technology, trade, and tremendous competition. It requires a combination of leadership, social cohesion, and deep investments in core capabilities—of people, firms, and institutions—to harness the opportunities on offer. The implications of different growth pathways are staggering. At its current pace of growth (4 percent per capita), Rwanda will barely cross the threshold for lower middle- income status by 2035. At growth of 7 percent per capita, average income would reach US$2,400 (2017 prices). To become an upper-middle-income country by 2035, Rwanda will need to grow at more than 10 percent per capita. In 2035, the economic landscape of Rwanda could resemble that of present-day Bangladesh or, alternatively, surpass that of today’s Vietnam or even Georgia and Indonesia. It is not surprising, therefore, that almost 70 percent of Rwandan respondents in a recent survey mentioned high economic growth as their first priority for the country. But economic growth is not only a matter of income. Growth matters for a broad range of other development outcomes, including poverty reduction, as shown globally and in Rwanda’s own experience as chronicled in this report. Sustained high growth has another, higher purpose for Rwanda: to escape from its tragic past; the country understandably is keen to put great distance between a bright future and a painful past. This is not to say that economic growth should be the only area of policy focus. The challenges of inequality, public service delivery, and environmental sustainability, among others, are just as important for development and need to be looked at in parallel, as is being done in Rwanda. Rwanda's income ambitions are built on a strong and widely acknowledged record of success. Emerging from the devastation of the 1994 genocide, which itself followed three decades of economic stagnation, the country has seen its average income rise three-and-a half- fold since. This rapid progress was made possible by the second-fastest growth of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita on the continent, sustained over two decades. Past successes justify bold ambitions but do not guarantee them. The reform agenda for accelerating growth to even higher levels and then sustaining it is complex and highly demanding, as described in this report.


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    public investment management; food policy research; finance and economic; Strategy and Policy Unit; labor productivity; Public and Publicly Guaranteed; number of patent applications; gross fixed capital formation; information and communication technology; education policy and planning; state-owned enterprise; total factor productivity growth; united nations population fund; human capital; trade and investment; share of employment; urbanization; new technology; national innovation system; secondary completion rate; domestic saving rate; per capita income; foreign direct investment; regional value chain; cost of electricity; dimension of governance; global value chain; trade in services; financial sector specialist; inclusive economic growth; per capita term; internet of things; mutual recognition agreement; high-quality tertiary education; Access to Education; Social Safety Nets; engine of growth; natural resource base; mining services; education and health; tertiary enrollment rate; investment in technology; central business district; years of schooling; privileges and immunity; total tax revenue; incentives for return; human capital investment; returns to schooling; return on investment; role of state; universal basic education; investments in agriculture; human growth; product market regulation; Production Possibility Frontier; accountable public institutions; high productivity growth; Early Childhood Development; access to financing; share of export; horticulture and floriculture; gross enrollment rate; comparative advantage; scale economy; investment rate; value added; firm size; regional bloc; Enterprise Development; global city; agricultural modernization; domestic enterprise; tradable sector; early grade; formal manufacturing; agricultural growth; take time; animal resource; participatory planning; division manager; price level; demographic shift; business process; tax incentive; export dynamism; enterprise sector; population pressure; comparator country; medical supply; global market; Trade Policy; export promotion; nutritional risk; household income; teaching practice; monitoring progress; good sanitation; banking sector; innovation funding; professional service; green bean; deposit rate; tertiary sector; trademark application; research institution; consumer good; research institutions; nontariff barrier; government effectiveness; total employment; informal employment; rural area; rural-urban migration; merchandise export; productivity gain; Trade Policies; plot boundary; urban development; building stock; secondary city; tertiary student; learning performance; technological change; skill provider; trade objectives; decentralization framework; low intensity; in economics; agricultural landscape; development well; social responsibility; managing risk; unskilled worker; basic research; wood product; economic empowerment; abject poverty; inclusive growth; fertility rate; intra-african trade; Natural Resources; higher growth; policy option; intraregional trade; trade opportunity; global trade; productivity paradox; massive investment; population dynamic; global climate; Regional Security; Technology Diffusion; economic reform; sectoral approach; investment growth; partnership development; recent years; national strategy; economic specialization; landlocked country; Learning and Innovation Credit; technological innovation; capital development; future learning; food sector; equitable institution; medical tourism; global change; agricultural product; program leader; industrial research; trade pattern; energy specialist; operations analyst; food production; common purpose; workforce skill; district governance; average price; vertical integration; net outflow; coffee sector; original work; outward orientation; Urban Planning; interior design; Higher Education; commercial purpose; property right; long-term growth; conceptual framework; wealth quintile; cge model; value addition; school completion; informal sector; teacher salar



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