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Campeche Mexico - Case of climate change adaptation : uncertain future, robust decisions (Inglês)

This documented case of climate change adaptation in Campeche Mexico grapples with a problem that is fundamental to addressing climate change risks in areas of high vulnerability, which is how to reach consensus and take decisions under an uncertain future. The state of Campeche in Mexico, is used as an example. With its long coastline, Campeche is highly vulnerable to current and projected future climate threats. Two different approaches to decision making under uncertainty have been explored. (i) A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach was used to systematically analyze expected impacts, identify and agree on a menu of adaptation measures, and prioritize those measures, using a powerful combination of solid scientific knowledge and local expertise. (ii) The real options theory approach was applied to selected adaptation alternatives, and the benefits of waiting were compared with the costs of delaying decisions. In general, options that were modular and flexible were found to lead to more robust and prudent adaptation measures. The specific results obtained in this work are less important than the overall tenor and spirit of the messages from these exercises. Most importantly both exercises SEA and real options demonstrated that involved actors are ultimately consistent and cautious in their approach to climate risks. An important lesson to emerge from this work is that there is merit in adopting multiple approaches to tackle problems where uncertainty looms large. When the answers converge there is likely to be greater confidence in the outcomes. A second and perhaps more important lesson is the need to identify all costs including the options foregone by embarking on an irreversible course of action.

Detalhes

  • Autor

    Mira-Salama, Daniel; Damania, Richard; Pedrozo-Acuna, Adrian; Scandizzo, Pasquale L.

  • Data do documento

    2013/01/01

  • TIpo de documento

    Documento de Trabalho

  • No. do relatório

    76891

  • Nº do volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • País

    América Latina,

  • Região

    América Latina e Caribe,

  • Data de divulgação

    2013/04/23

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Nome do documento

    Campeche Mexico - Case of climate change adaptation : uncertain future, robust decisions

  • Palavras-chave

    Environmental and Socially Sustainable;sea level rise;environment and sustainable development;effect of sea level rise;Integrated Management of Coastal Zones;sea level rise scenarios;process of decision making;integrated coastal zone management;vulnerability to climate change;storm surge;Water Resource Management;average sea level;strategic environmental assessment;land use change;Natural Resource Management;discounted cash flow;gdp growth rate;health of people;climate change risk;impacts of infrastructure;intensity of hurricanes;climate change adaptation;policy and institution;law and regulation;integrate water resource;carbon emission reduction;liquid waste management;account management;storm drainage system;Supply of Water;large rivers flow;rates of urbanization;climate change mitigation;drainage of water;sea level change;land use planning;sea surface temperature;annual maximum precipitation;global surface temperature;number of stakeholders;tropical dry forest;intensity of rainfall;climate change threat;average annual rainfall;impacts on ecosystems;natural climate variability;general circulation model;destruction of wetland;global storm;climate change impact;loss of land;protected area;trend analysis;high vulnerability;coastal area;

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