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Distributional implications of climate change in India (Inglês)

Global warming is expected to heavily impact agriculture, the dominant source of livelihood for the world's poor. Yet, little is known about the distributional implications of climate change at the sub-national level. Using a simple comparative statics framework, this paper analyzes how changes in the prices of land, labor, and food induced by modest temperature increases over the next three decades will affect household-level welfare in India. The authors predict a substantial fall in agricultural productivity, even allowing for farmer adaptation. Yet, this decline will not translate into a sharp drop in consumption for the majority of rural households, who derive their income largely from wage employment. Overall, the welfare costs of climate change fall disproportionately on the poor. This is true in urban as well as in rural areas, but, in the latter sector only after accounting for the effects of rising world cereal prices. Adaptation appears to primarily benefit the non-poor, since they own the lion's share of agricultural land. The results suggest that poverty in India will be roughly 3-4 percentage points higher after thirty years of rising temperatures than it would have been had this warming not occurred.


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    Jacoby, Hanan Rabassa, Mariano Skoufias, Emmanuel

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    Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas

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    Sul da Ásia,

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    Distributional implications of climate change in India

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    Access to markets, adjustment to climate change, agricultural activities, Agricultural Economics, agricultural employment, agricultural land, agricultural output, agricultural producers, agricultural product, agricultural production, agricultural productivity, agricultural season, agricultural sector, agricultural wage, agricultural wage employment, agricultural wages, agricultural workers, allocation, annual precipitation, calculation, carbon, carbon fertilization, cash flow, Changes in poverty, Climate, Climate Change, climate change impacts, Climate change scenario, climate change scenarios, Climate change strategy, Climate data, climate effects, Climate Impacts, climate model, climate models, climate parameter, Climate Prediction, Climate Research, climate scenarios, climate sensitive, climate sensitivities, climate sensitivity, climate variables, climate variation, climatic conditions, Climatic Research, CO2, commodity trade, consequences of climate change, consumer demand, consumption data, consumption expenditure, consumption expenditures, costs of climate change, counterfactual, crop production, crop varieties, crop yield, cropland, daily wage, damages, desert region, Development Economics, discount rate, discount rates, Distributional Implications, Ecological Economics, ecological zones, economic costs, economic costs of climate change, Economic growth, economic impact, economic impacts, economic impacts of climate, economic impacts of climate change, economics of climate change, effect of climate change, emissions, emissions path, Environmental Economics, expansion of irrigation, family members, farm households, farm labor, farm production, farm productivity, farm sector, farm size, farm work, farmer, farmers, farmland, fodder, food consumption, food crops, food price, food prices, food production, food security, food share, forests, glacier melt, Global warming, household budget, household demographics, household heads, household income, household incomes, household survey, human capital, human capital investment, impact of climate, impact of climate change, impact of temperature, impacts of climate change, Implications of Climate Change, income, income distribution, income growth, increase in temperature, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, irrigation, jobs, labor productivity, land distribution, land ownership, land prices, land productivity, land value, landholdings, landless households, Local climate, low wages, marginal price, national poverty, national poverty rate, negative impact, negative impacts, per capita consumption, per capita income, plant growth, Political Economy, poor, poor people, poverty increase, poverty line, poverty lines, poverty rate, Poverty Reduction, precipitation, price effect, price increase, production function, production technology, rainfall, rainfall distribution, rainfall variation, regional cost, regional income, regional labor, regional variation, Resource Economics, response to climate change, rural, rural areas, rural districts, rural employment, rural growth, rural households, rural income, rural incomes, rural labor, rural labor market, rural poor, rural population, rural poverty, rural residents, rural roads, rural wages, rural workers, season, seasonal temperature, structural transformation, supply curve, surface temperature, targeting, temperature, temperature change, temperature changes, temperature data, temperature effect, temperature effects, temperature increase, temperature increases, temperature readings, temperature sensitivity, temperature variation, temperatures, total consumption, uncertainties, unemployment, utility function, wage earners, wage employment, warmer temperatures, welfare distribution, working days, worst-case, worst-case scenarios



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