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East Asia and Pacific Economic Update : Background Paper B.4. Poverty and Social Protection (Inglês)

Poverty in developing East Asian and Pacific could increase for the first time in 20 years: Up to 38 million more people are expected to be pushed into poverty as a result of the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to reverse the 20-year sustained trend of poverty reduction in the region. Prior to the onset of COVID-19, 14 million people were projected to escape poverty in 2020 based on the lower-middle income class poverty line (US$3.20/day, 2011 PPP). Instead, based on the latest GDP forecast, poverty is likely be 0.9 – 1.0 percentage points higher than it would have been in the absence of the pandemic, translating into between 18 to 21 million more poor people than in the pre-COVID-19 scenario. The differences between pre- and post-COVID-19 estimates are even starker at the higher, upper-middle income class poverty line (US$5.50/day, 2011 PPP). Based on that line, 33 million would have escaped poverty in the pre-COVID-19 scenario but due to the pandemic, poverty is expected to be 1.6 – 1.8 percentage points higher than previously projected. This represents between 33 and 38 million more poor people than expected before the crisis.

Detalhes

  • Data do documento

    2020/09/28

  • TIpo de documento

    Report

  • No. do relatório

    153356

  • Nº do volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • País

    Leste Asiático e Pacífico,

  • Região

    Leste Asiático e Pacífico,

  • Data de divulgação

    2020/09/27

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Nome do documento

    East Asia and Pacific Economic Update : Background Paper B.4. Poverty and Social Protection

  • Palavras-chave

    Social Protection; female-headed household; conditional cash transfer program; Social Protection Delivery Systems; access to medical service; access to health service; Growth Elasticity of Poverty; active labor market program; escape poverty; years of schooling; social assistance; social protection program; high frequency; negative income shock; household receiving remittance; households with child; school closure; human capital accumulation; social protection system; million people; per capita consumption; social protection instrument; social insurance program; social assistance program; public works program; community based services; antenatal care coverage; income from wages; transfers from migrant; new employment opportunity; access to phones; change in remittance; rates of infection; access to food; universal child allowance; unemployment insurance benefit; social protection initiative; change in employment; loss of job; social assistance spending; central government spending; social protection spending; female head; social security contribution; growth and development; school feeding program; informal sector worker; flexible work arrangement; job search assistance; formal sector employment; safety net program; disruption in access; food assistance program; household survey data; share of children; government policy response; several other countries; income loss; several countries; educational activities; labor income; Wage Subsidies; Public Spending; random digit; rural area; wage subsidy; food expenditure; Food Services; job loss; food insecurity; household head; simulation analysis; affected worker; relief measure; emergency response; historical growth; Population Projection; rapid assessment; poverty estimate; population size; household consumption; new poor; poor household; school system; in school; food shortage; poverty impact; welfare indicator; government response; support measure; economic recovery; employment loss; attending school; high share; sampling method; country survey; delivery capacity; wage employment; financial inclusion; immunization service; treatment services; travel restriction; wage income; small economy; classroom learning; working life; learning activity; Online Learning; rural disparity; educational program; online platform; monitoring visit; active learning; measles coverage; geographical area; Distance Learning; school time; health centre; urban household; asian countries; macroeconomic impact; cross-country data; social registries; ID Systems; cross-country variation; still others; available evidence; targeting mechanism; positive relationship; vulnerable population; horizontal expansion; budgetary allocation; in poverty; emergency social; workers skill; labor mobility; weighted average; simulation result; estimate impact; learning initiative; monetary cost; drop-out rate; future learning; intergenerational cycles; young people; long-term impact; poor health; child malnutrition; short-term impact; short term impact; long-term risk; taxi driver; sick leave; higher learning; tour guide; in work; migrant worker; utility subsidies; food voucher; program duration; average duration; residency permit; emergency relief; traditional community; informal worker; help screen; online registration; informal employment; benefit amount; job referral; regulatory adjustment; private enterprise; firm size; job retention; eligibility conditions; social work; supply chain; Real estate; national household; retail trade; proxy indicator; population number; economic crisis; last resort; external demand; saharan africa; vulnerability analysis; Rural Industry; agricultural sector; international transfer; high employment; female workers; recent studies; income effect; rural worker; international remittance; family transfer; machine learning; downside scenario; poverty projection; positive growth; lost income; employment impact; coping strategy; in family; business experience; income reduction; survey questionnaire

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