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The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 : Western Balkans Outlook (Albanês)

The Western Balkans region is projected to enter a recession in 2020 whose magnitude vitally depends on the duration of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak in Europe. In the baseline scenario, the recession would be considerable, with growth in the region contracting by about 3 percent but with substantial differences by country based on economic structure and pre-crisis vulnerabilities. Assuming the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak is largely contained by mid-2020— allowing economic activity to resume as measures to contain the virus are lifted and financial market and supply-chain disruptions ease—real GDP growth for the year would fall by 3.1 percent. Because their economic structure depends on service exports, Montenegro, Albania, and Kosovo would be hit hard, with a drop of over 8 percentage points (pp) from preCOVID-19 2020 projections. Their economies are projected to contract by about 5 percent. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Serbia, and North Macedonia are expected to experience only slightly less acute recessions, by 3.2, 2.5, and 1.4 percent compared to the pre-COVID-19 projection.

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